[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of ETA is just off the coast of South Carolina. Heavy
rains and gusty winds are being experienced in parts of the
Carolinas. The center of Tropical Storm ETA, at 13/0300 UTC, is
near 32.6N 79.0W. This position is also about 56 nm/100 km to
the ESE in Charleston in South Carolina. ETA is moving toward
the NE, or 045 degrees, 15 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40
knots with gusts to 50 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is within 170 nm to 240 nm of the
center in the SE quadrant from 28N to 32N. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from Cuba to 28N between 77W in the
Atlantic Ocean and the Yucatan Channel, including in parts of
Florida and in the Florida Keys. Please, read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Theta, at 13/0300 UTC, is near
31.7N 26.0W, in the Atlantic Ocean. THETA is moving toward the
E, or 90 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 993 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50
knots with gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is within 180 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
within 150n nm of the center. Please, read the latest NHC
Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure center is
along the tropical wave, near 15N. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 80 nm of the center in the southern
semicircle, and from 130 nm to 310 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant. Scattered strong is in parts of Colombia and
Venezuela, from 04N to 10N between 68W and 76W. Isolated
moderate is between 65W and 80W, in general. It is likely for a
tropical depression to form within the next couple of days. The
low pressure center is forecast to move slowly westward, in the
central and western sections of the Caribbean Sea. Anyone who
has interests in Honduras and Nicaragua should monitor closely
the progress of this weather system. This system is expected to
bring heavy rainfall, and possible flash flooding, to parts of
Hispaniola during the next day or so. The chance of formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high.
Please, refer to the webpage,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from your
local weather office, also.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: t is part of the analysis for 12 November/0000
UTC, is the Caribbean Sea tropical wave that is along 68W/69W. A
low pressure center is along the tropical wave, near 15.5N.
This is the feature that has a medium chance of developing into
a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please, read the
SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more details. Please, refer to the
webpage,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from your
local weather office, also.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland, in Africa. The ITCZ extends from
the coastal plains of Senegal near 13N17W, to 09N30W, 05N40W,
and to 02N47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong in individual clusters, is from 02N to 07N
between 17W and 22W; from 05N to 08N between 35W and 38W;
and from 03N to 07N between 38W and 43W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 11N southward from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The surface pressure gradient in the Gulf of Mexico is flat and
weak, at the moment. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Eta is now well NE of the area offshore of the
Carolinas. The conditions have improved in the NE Gulf of
Mexico. High pressure will be N of the area through Sunday. A
cold front will move
into the northern Gulf of Mexico late on Sunday. The cold front
will reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Monday. The cold
front will push SE of the basin late on Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure center is
along the tropical wave, near 15N. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 80 nm of the center in the southern
semicircle, and from 130 nm to 310 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant. Scattered strong is in parts of Colombia and
Venezuela, from 04N to 10N between 68W and 76W. Isolated
moderate is between 65W and 80W, in general. It is likely for a
tropical depression to form within the next couple of days. The
low pressure center is forecast to move slowly westward, in the
central and western sections of the Caribbean Sea. Anyone who
has interests in Honduras and Nicaragua should monitor closely
the progress of this weather system. This system is expected to
bring heavy rainfall, and possible flash flooding, to parts of
Hispaniola during the next day or so. The chance of formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high.
Please, refer to the webpage,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts from your
local weather office, also.

The monsoon trough is along 10N73W in Colombia, to SE coastal
Nicaragua, and through El Salvador, and Guatemala, and beyond
15N94W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 73W
westward.

Upper level NE wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. The NW wind flow is spilling over from the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 16N northward from
Jamaica westward.

Low pressure near 15N73W, associated with a tropical wave, will
move westward across the central Caribbean Sea, overnight and
Friday, then across the western Caribbean Sea from Friday night
through Monday. This system has a high possibility of tropical
cyclone development. It is likely for a tropical depression to
form within the next couple of days. Expect increasing winds,
seas and active weather, north through northeast of the
developing low pressure center, through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The center of Tropical Storm Theta, at 13/0300 UTC, is near
31.7N 26.0W, in the Atlantic Ocean. THETA is moving toward the
E, or 90 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 993 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50
knots with gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to widely scattered strong is within 180 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
within 150n nm of the center. Please, read the latest NHC
Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 30N37W, to
a cyclonic circulation center that is near 23N56W, to the NE
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are within 500 nm
to 600 nm to the south of the upper level cyclonic circulation
center, from 46W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
on either side of Tropical Storm THETA.

Tropical Storm Eta near 32.3N 79.0W 1004 mb at 10 PM EST moving
NE at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Eta will
continue to move NE away from the area overnight. Fresh to
strong SE winds and associated seas will decrease through
Friday, as Eta moves northeastward. Eta will drag a trailing
trough across the basin through the weekend. A cold front will
move off the SE U.S. coast on Monday, shifting SE through
Tuesday night.

$$
mt
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