[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 30.2N 81.8W at 12/1500 UTC or
8 nm SW of Jacksonville Florida, moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N
of 28N W of 77W and within 60 nm off the SE coast of Florida. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will emerge into the western
Atlantic by early this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to
accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but
offshore of the Carolinas tonight and early Friday before heading
well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday. Little change
in strength is forecast through early Friday. Eta could re-intensify
as a non-tropical cyclone late Friday or Friday night before
becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Theta is centered near 31.6N 28.8W at 12/1500 UTC
or 390 nm SSW of the Azores, moving E at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt
with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N to
36N between 20W and 35W. Theta is forecast to continue an eastward
track for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the east-
southeast along with a slowing of the forward motion. Little
change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Weakening
is expected over the weekend, and Theta is forecast to become a
remnant low on Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

A 1009 mb low pressure is in the central Caribbean near 15N70W
associated with a tropical wave with axis near 70W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection and tstms are across the
central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Venezuela. Satellite
imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually becoming
better organized, and a tropical depression will likely form
within the next couple of days as it moves slowly westward over
the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with
possible flash flooding to portions of Hispaniola over the next
day or so. There is a high chance this system will evolve into a
tropical cyclone within the next two days. For more detailed
information, refer to products issued by your local weather office
and the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please see the special features section for information on a
tropical wave with high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone
within the next 2 days.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 09N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N18W to 05N37W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 0N to 09N E of 36W to the coast of
Africa, and from 04N to 13N between 36W and 61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Eta has moved over the NE Florida peninsula, however
moderate to fresh W to NW winds prevail in the NE gulf. Eta will
move into the SW N Atlc later today and exit the region late this
afternoon and marine conditions caused by Eta will start to
improve. Also, over the NE waters, a cold front extends from
30N83W SW to 28N86W where it transitions to a dissipating
stationary front that continues along 27N90W to Texas offshore
waters near 28N96W. Strong dry air subsidence at the middle levels
is hindering convection at the time. However, shallow moisture is
supporting some dense fog in the north-central and NW basin along
the frontal boundary. The front across the northern Gulf is
forecast to lift north and dissipate through Fri. Latest
scatterometer data show light to gentle northerly winds elsewhere
as high pressure starts to build N of the area.

Otherwise, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf late
Sun, and reach the central Gulf by late Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A low pressure is near 15N71W associated with a tropical wave.
This low pressure system is supporting scattered moderate
isolated strong convection and tstms are across the central
Caribbean between Hispaniola and Venezuela. Latest scatterometer
data show moderate to fresh easterly winds behind the tropical
wave, over the central and eastern Caribbean, as well as
northeasterly winds of the same magnitude across the Windward
passage. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the western
basin. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are within 90 nm off
the coast of Panama associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough.

The wave will move westward across the central Caribbean through
Fri and has a high possibility of tropical cyclone development
late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the western
Caribbean Sea. Expect increasing winds, seas and active weather
north of the developing low through the weekend. For further
details, see the speacial features section.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Eta is inland near 30.2N 81.8W 1003 mb at 10 AM
EST moving NNE at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50
kt. Eta will move NNE and over the north Florida coastal waters
shortly, and reach near 32.0N 79.8W this evening, then continue to
exit to the north of the area tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong
SE winds and associated seas will decrease through Fri as Eta
moves northeastward. A trough will move to the north of the
Leeward and Virgin Islands Sat through Mon.

Tropical Storm Theta is near 31.6N 28.8W 990 mb at 10 AM EST
moving E at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to
65 kt. Theta will move to 31.7N 27.0W this evening, 31.8N 24.7W
Fri morning, 31.8N 22.6W Fri evening, 31.5N 21.0W Sat morning,
31.2N 20.2W Sat evening, and weaken to a remnant low near 31.1N
19.6W Sun morning. Theta will change little in intensity as it
moves to near 32.7N 19.2W early Mon. Please see the special
features section for further details.

$$
Ramos
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