[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101650
TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Nov 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 22.7N 85.3W at 10/1500 UTC
or 52 nm NNW of the western tip of Cuba stationary. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 21N-24N between 83W-87W. Scattered moderate
convection is elsewhere from 20N-25N between 79W-88W. Little
motion is expected today. A slow northward motion is forecast
to begin by this evening and continue through Thursday. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed
by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Flash and river
flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides
in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding,
especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible
in South Florida today and tonight. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.
shtml for more details.

Subtropical Storm Theta is centered near 29.0N 37.4W at 10/1500
UTC or 747 nm SW of the Azores moving E at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 29N-32N between 35W-40W. An eastward to east-northeastward
motion across the eastern Atlantic is expected during the next
few days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
couple of days. Some slow weakening is expected by later this
week. See the latest NHC Forecast Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving through the eastern Caribbean with axis
along 66W, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 09N-19N between 60W-68W. The wave is expected
to move westward into more conducive environmental conditions
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or this weekend when the wave reaches the
central or western Caribbean Sea. There is a low chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 2 days. See the NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
13N17W to 10N22W. The ITCZ continues from 10N22W to 07N30W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
03N-13N between 40W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Outside of convection associated to T.S. Eta, the Gulf of Mexico
is free of any significant precipitation. A recent ASCAT pass
shows strong to near gale force winds over the eastern Gulf east
of 89W, from the Yucatan Channel to 30N, except for tropical
storm force winds near Tropical Storm Eta. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail west of 91W.

Eta will move to 23.1N 85.4W this evening, 24.0N 85.3W Wed
morning, 25.0N 85.2W Wed evening, 25.9N 85.1W Thu morning,
26.6N 85.2W Thu evening, and 27.2N 85.5W Fri morning. Eta will
change little in intensity as it moves to near 28.6N 86.4W early
Sat. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Gulf
waters E of 87W. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and
become stationary over the northern Gulf through Fri night, then
lift back north as a warm front Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

T.S. Eta is close to the western tip of Cuba and the eastern
portion of the Yucatan Channel, and will remain in that vicinity
through today, spreading rain squalls and high seas over the
area. Eta will move northward and away from the Yucatan Channel
on Wednesday. Large swells from Eta are expected to propagate
over the western Caribbean today before subsiding on Wednesday.

Farther east, an area of strong upper-level diffluence is
enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection from 15N-21N
between 66W-71W, including near and over portions of Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage. A recent ASCAT
pass shows fresh winds in the E Caribbean, strong winds in the NW
Caribbean, and gentle winds elsewhere in the basin.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will move through the
central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Low pressure
could form along the wave with the potential for tropical
cyclone development late this week or over the weekend. Expect
winds and seas to increase over most sections of the central
Caribbean beginning on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features Section above for information on Subtropical
Storm Theta.

A plume of enhanced moisture extends over the western Atlantic
from the NE Caribbean through the Bahamas to Florida. Upper-level
diffluence over the area is enhancing scattered moderate showers
and isolated tstorms from 20N-30N between 63W-81W. Stronger,
more  concentrated convection is seen just north of Puerto Rico
and in the Mona Passage. Strong SE winds cover most of the area
from the Bahamas northward to 32N and eastward to 68W. Fresh
winds are elsewhere outside the stronger wind area from the
Greater Antilles to 32N between 60W-82W.

A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure along the
Mid-Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Eta over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico will support strong winds over the western
Atlantic today before diminishing Wed. These winds will maintain
large seas in the western Atlantic today before gradually
subsiding through late Thu night.

$$
Formosa
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