[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Nov 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2250 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 23.9N 79.5W at 08/2100 UTC or
98 nm ESE of Marathon Florida, moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Most of the convection in the SW
quadrant eroded due to dry air in the upper levels mixing in and
around the entire circulation. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 20N to 31N between 70W and 82W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection and thunderstorms
are from 12N to 24N between 65W and 74W, including portions of
Jamaica, Cuba, the Windward Passage Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.
Tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 nm from the
center. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been reported
along much of the southeast Florida coast during the past few
hours. Seas 12 ft of greater within 60 nm of center except 90 nm
SE quadrant with seas to 25 ft. On the forecast track, the center
of Eta will continue to move over the Florida Straits between
Cuba and the Bahamas this afternoon, pass near or over the
Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. Additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Eta could
become a hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight.
Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica,
the Bahamas and southern Florida. Significant, life-threatening
flash and river flooding is possible in Cuba, along with
landslides in areas of higher terrain, especially in central
Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are also possible for Jamaica, the
Bahamas and South Florida. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

Southwest North Atlantic gale warning...

The pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure N of the
region, over the Mid-Atlantic states, is resulting in a large
area of strong to near gale force easterly winds across the
western Atlantic, west of 67W. These winds are forecast to
increase to gale force this evening and prevail through Mon
morning with seas building up to 20-22 ft. Please read the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

North Central Atlantic Gale warning...
The pressure gradient between the high pressure to the N of
the region and low pressure over the N Central Atlantic will
induce in an area of gale force winds across the N Central
Atlantic, east of 35W. The winds are forecast to begin Tue
into Wed with seas building between 10-18ft. Please visit
NHC High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for the latest
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 18N with axis near 60W,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 08N-18N between 56W and 62W, including
Venezuela and Guyana.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea, Africa near
09N13W SW to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 07N39W to
10N56W. Scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ from 03N to
10N between 25W and 37W, and from 10N to 16N between 42W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Eta.

Fresh to strong N to NE winds are in the eastern half of the Gulf
ahead of Tropical Storm Eta, which is along the Florida Straits
23.9N 79.5W at 08/2100 UTC moving NW at 12 kt. Eta will move to
near 24.7N 81.1W late tonight, strengthen to a hurricane near
24.6N 83.4W early Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65
kt gusts 80 kt and maintain intensity as it moves to near 23.6N
84.8W late Mon night, to near 24.0N 85.1W early Tue afternoon,
then turn to the north-northeast to near 25.1N 85.0W late Tue
night and weaken to a tropical storm near 25.8N 84.8W early Wed
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts to 75 kt.
Expect for marine conditions to deteriorate, with increasing
winds and seas as Tropical Storm Eta moves into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico today through Mon. A cold front will move into the
NW Gulf Wed and become stationary over the northern Gulf through
Fri. Long-period swell will impact the area through the upcoming
week.

A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed and become stationary
over the northern Gulf through Fri. Long-period swell will impact
the area through the upcoming week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Eta continues to move towards the NW away from
Cuba into the Florida Straits. However, the tropical storm force
winds associated With T.S. Eta extend out to 150 nm. The outer
rainbands of Eta are still supporting scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection across the central Caribbean,
including Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Puerto Rico. Latest
scatterometer data show moderate to fresh SW to W winds across
the Caribbean waters W of 74W, and moderate SE to E winds E of
74W. Seas over southern-central Cuba adjacent waters are up to 10
ft. Marine conditions will slowly improve through Tue. A
tropical wave, currently just east of the Windward Islands, will
reach the central Caribbean in a few days with low pressure
developing from it. Expect for trade winds to increase and seas
to build over the north-central Caribbean beginning on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Eta and Gale Warning for the western N Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 23.9N 79.5W at 08/2100 UTC.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280
km) from the center. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds are
observed across the western Atlantic north of 24N west of 65W.
The combination of the 1027 mb high to the north and T.S. Eta
will induce Gale force winds north of 27N. The convection noted
west of 65W is associated to T.S. Eta. Further east, ASCAT shows
the 1014 mb low pressure near 28N46W with a trough extending From
30N43W to 23N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to
33N between 41W-48W. In the NE Atlantic, a cold front enters the
forecast area near 31N15W to 30N18W and stalls near 30N30W. No
significant convection is noted near the front. Large seas are
expected in the western Atlantic through Tue before gradually
subsiding through Thu night.

$$
MTorres
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