[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Nov 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 21.5N 79.3W at 08/0900 UTC
or 80 nm W of Camaguey Cuba moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is
within 240 nm E semicircle and 60 nm W semicircle, including over
portions of Jamaica and Cuba. On the forecast track, the center of
Eta will cross central Cuba this morning, approach South Florida
and the Florida Keys this afternoon, and pass near or over South
Florida and the Florida Keys tonight and Monday. A tropical storm
warning is in effect for South Florida and the Florida Keys. A
hurricane watch and storm surge watch are in effect for portions
of Florida. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more
details.

Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions
of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and
southern Florida. Significant, life-threatening flash and river
flooding is possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain, especially in central Cuba. Flash and urban
flooding are also possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the
Bahamas and South Florida.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W from 04N-18N, moving
westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N-12N between 55W-61W.

With a largely diffluent flow, the energy associated to the
tropical wave near 73W has dispersed. The wave has dampened and
has been removed from the surface map.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from West Africa
near 10N14W and extends to near 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from
07N17W to 05N25W to 10N54W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 270 nm either side of the ITCZ between 20W-40W. West of
40W, scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm N of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and isolated tstorms cover the eastern Gulf
east of 90W as well as the Florida Straits. Fresh to strong E
winds are in the eastern Gulf, except for near gale in the Florida
Straits. Moderate wind speeds prevail in the western Gulf, along
with clear to partly cloudy skies.

Tropical Storm Eta, located just south of central Cuba, will
move N through the Florida Straits this afternoon, be near the
Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and move into the SE Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday. Expect marine conditions to deteriorate, with
increasing winds and seas as Tropical Storm Eta moves into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Please see Special Features
section for more information on Tropical Storm Eta.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Eta, located south of Cuba, is forecast to
move northward across Cuba today, emerging over the Straits of
Florida later today. At that time, winds, seas and squalls will be
decreasing over the NW Caribbean Sea. A line of scattered strong
convection is noted from the NE coast of Nicaragua to western
Jamaica, in addition to the convection mentioned above in the
special features section for Tropical Storm Eta.

Fresh to strong winds associated with the cyclonic circulation
of Eta extend farther S to about 15N based on scatterometer
data. These winds are associated with a surface trough extending
from 17N80W to 14N83.5W. Mainly moderate trade winds dominate
the eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Eta. Tropical storm conditions are expected
between Cuba and the Bahamas this afternoon through Mon.
Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic through Tue,
gradually subsiding through Thu night.

The pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure N of the
region, over the Mid-Atlantic states, is resulting in a large
area of strong easterly winds across the western Atlantic, west
of 67W. These winds are forecast to persist early this week, with
seas building up to 20-22 ft just N of the NW Bahamas and E of
central Florida. Tropical Storm force winds are expected to extend
farther N of Eta's center as its wind field greatly expands.

To the east, a surface trough is analyzed from a 1014 mb low
pressure located near 26N50W to 22N54W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted to the east of the feature from 20N-32N
between 40W- 50W. Gentle to moderate winds are observed near this
feature.

$$
AL
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