[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Nov 7 17:22:04 CST 2020


AXNT20 KNHC 072321
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Nov 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Eta is centered near 20.4N 80.7W or 70 nm NNE of
Grand Cayman moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased
to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Tropical storm winds are within
50 nm NE quadrant, 90 nm SE quadrant, 20 nm SW quadrant, and 40
nm NW quadrant. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 60 nm East
semicircle and 30 nm West semicircle with seas to 14 ft.
Satellite imagery shows a large area of moderate to strong
convection within 250 nm in the NE quadrant and 260 nm SE
quadrant of Eta. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will
cross central Cuba tonight, approach south Florida and the
Florida Keys on Sunday, and pass near or over south Florida and
the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday. A tropical Storm
warning is in effect for South Florida and the Florida Keys. Some
additional strengthening is expected through Sunday night.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions
of Cuba, and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and
southern Florida. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches (200
to 400 mm) with isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (650
mm) are expected in the Cayman Island and portions of Cuba.
Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher
terrain, especially in central Cuba. Flash and urban flooding
will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the
Bahamas, and Southern Florida.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 06N-17N, moving
westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 08N-13N
between 52W-58W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are associated
with the wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 71W, moving westward 10 to 15
kt. An area of moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
ahead of the wave axis from 13N-15N between 70W-75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Guinea and
extends to near 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 06N30W
to 09N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N-11N between 24W-41W, and from 08N-14N between
43W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for more information on
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Eta. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida, on Sun. The tropical storm conditions will spread
northward across the eastern Gulf through Wed. A band of showers
is noted over the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf. Mosaic
Doppler radar from the SE U.S. shows increasing shower and
thunderstorm activity east of 83W including over South Florida.

Currently, fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail over the eastern
Gulf, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the eastern United States, and Tropical Storm Eta in the NW
Caribbean, north of Jamaica. Gentle to moderate winds are over
the remainder are evident over the western portion the Gulf
waters with no significant convection. Expect for marine
conditions to deteriorate, with increasing winds and seas as
Tropical Storm Eta moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
Monday.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Feature section for more information on
Tropical Storm Eta. Eta will move north of the area late Sun,
with conditions starting to improve into early next week.

Fresh to strong winds associated with the cyclonic circulation
of Eta extend farther S to about 14N based on scatterometer
data. Mainly moderate trade winds dominate the eastern Caribbean
in the wake of a tropical wave located along 71W. This wave will
move west and gradually become absorbed in the broadening
circulation of Eta Sun through Mon, and spread moisture across
the Greater Antilles.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Feature section for more information on
Tropical Storm Eta. Tropical storm conditions are expected
between Cuba and the Bahamas tonight through Mon. Large seas
are expected in the western Atlantic Sat through Tue.

The pressure gradient between Eta and high pressure N of the
region, over the Mid-Atlantic states, is resulting in a large
area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 22N W of 70W. These
winds are forecast to persist Sun and Sun night, with seas
building up to 20-22 ft just N of the NW Bahamas and E of central
Florida. Tropical Storm force winds are expected to extend
farther N of Eta's center as its wind field greatly expands.

To the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N48W to a 1014
mb low pressure located near 26N51W, then it continues SW to
near 21N56W. Scattered moderate convection are noted to the east
of the Feature from 18N-21N between 42W-50W. Light and variable
winds are Observed near these two features. Another surface
trough extends from 24N32W to 20N38W.

$$ Torres
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