[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Eta is centered near 18.3N 84.9W at 07/0900
UTC or 220 nm WSW of Grand Cayman moving ENE at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is noted within 120 nm E and 30 nm W semicircles
of Eta. Eta is forecast to intensify to tropical storm strength
today while moving on a ENE track. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America,
although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue,
along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall
from Eta will continue across the Cayman Islands and portions of
Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding
and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be
possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern
Florida.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 09N to 12N within 60 nm E of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, from 15N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep convection is
noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N19W to 07N50W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N E of 17W, from 03N to
07N between 17W and 29W, and from 03N to 11N between 30W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the eastern Gulf, supported by
the pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern
United States, and Tropical Depression Eta in the western
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of
the Gulf waters.

Tropical Depression Eta near 18.3N 84.9W 1002 mb at 4 AM EST
moving ENE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta
will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.3N 82.9W this
afternoon, move to 20.7N 80.9W Sun morning, inland to 22.6N 80.2W
Sun afternoon, 23.8N 80.2W Mon morning, 24.9N 81.2W Mon afternoon,
and 25.5N 83.7W Tue morning. Eta will change little in intensity
as it moves to near 26.0N 84.7W early Wed. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the SE Gulf, including the
Straits of Florida, on Sun. The tropical storm conditions will
spread northward across the eastern Gulf through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see above for more information on Tropical Depression Eta.
Outside of Eta, gentle to moderate winds prevail.

Tropical Depression Eta near 18.3N 84.9W 1002 mb at 4 AM EST
moving ENE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta
will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.3N 82.9W this
afternoon, move to 20.7N 80.9W Sun morning, inland to 22.6N 80.2W
Sun afternoon, 23.8N 80.2W Mon morning, 24.9N 81.2W Mon afternoon,
and 25.5N 83.7W Tue morning. Eta will change little in intensity
as it moves to near 26.0N 84.7W early Wed. The center of Eta will
approach the Cayman Islands today, and be near central or western
Cuba tonight and Sunday. The system will move north of the area
late Sun, with marine conditions starting to improve into early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One surface trough is along 60W, from 22N to 29N. A second
surface trough is about 420 nm to the east of the first surface
trough. A third surface trough is about 500 nm to the ESE of the
second surface trough. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 20N northward between 42W and 62W in
association to these troughs.

Fresh to strong winds prevail W of 70W due to the pressure
gradient between high pressure extending off the eastern United
States and Tropical Depression Eta. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere.

Tropical Depression Eta near 18.3N 84.9W 1002 mb at 4 AM EST
moving ENE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta
will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.3N 82.9W this
afternoon, move to 20.7N 80.9W Sun morning, inland to 22.6N 80.2W
Sun afternoon, 23.8N 80.2W Mon morning, 24.9N 81.2W Mon afternoon,
and 25.5N 83.7W Tue morning. Eta will change little in intensity
as it moves to near 26.0N 84.7W early Wed. Tropical storm
conditions are expected between Cuba and the Bahamas tonight
through Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic
through Tue.

$$
AL
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