[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Nov 06 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression ETA, at 06/0600 UTC, is near
17.0N 87.6W. This position is also about 87 nm/160 km to the NNW
of La Ceiba in Honduras, and 390 nm/725 km to the WSW of Grand
Cayman. ETA is moving toward the N, or 360 degrees, 7 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Precipitation: precipitation, in general, covers the area from
72W westward. Scattered to numerous strong is in clusters: in
the northernmost sections of Colombia in La Peninsula de la
Guajira; within 420 nm to the NW of the northern parts of
Colombia; from 12N to 20N between 80W and 85W in the coastal
waters of Central America; within 270 nm to the NNE of the
center of ETA; and in the easternmost parts of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to
strong is elsewhere in Central America from Costa Rica
northward. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.
ETA is forecast to strengthen, and to move northeastward on
Friday. ETA still is causing heavy rains and life-threatening
flooding in sections of Central America. This rainfall will lead
to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding, and landslides, in areas of higher terrain of Central
America. Significant, life-threatening flooding, flash floods
and river flooding, is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
Flash flooding and river flooding are expected for Jamaica and
southeast Mexico.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings about heavy rain and flooding in their countries.
Anybody who has interests in those countries should continue to
monitor the situation about T.D. ETA. Anybody who has interests
in Cuba, in the NW Bahamas, in the Florida Keys, and in the
southern part of Florida: please, monitor the progress of T.D.
ETA. It is possible that it may be necessary to issue tropical
storm watches on Friday, for some of those areas.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.  Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 250 nm to 300 nm
on either side of the tropical wave, from 13N southward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270
nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 13N southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along
13N23W, 07N30W, 04N45W, and from 07N48W to 06N55W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong, in small
clusters, are from 14N southward, from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, TO 22N98W in coastal
Mexico. Rainshowers are possible, to the south and southeast of
the line that runs from the south central coastal Louisiana to
22N98W along the coast of Mexico. Any possible precipitation
that is most probably related to Tropical Depression ETA.

A shear line passes through the Bahamas just to the south of
Andros Island, to NW Cuba, to the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical Depression Eta near 16.6N 87.8W 1004 mb at 10 PM EST
moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta
will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.5N 87.2W Fri
morning, move to 18.8N 85.4W Fri evening, 19.7N 83.2W Sat
morning, 20.8N 81.0W Sat evening, inland to 22.6N 79.8W Sun
morning, and 24.2N 80.4W Sun evening. Eta will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 25.0N 83.0W late Mon. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the SE Gulf of Mexico,
including in the Straits of Florida, from Sunday night through
Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The center of Tropical Depression ETA, at 06/0600 UTC, is near
17.0N 87.6W. This position is also about 87 nm/160 km to the NNW
of La Ceiba in Honduras, and 390 nm/725 km to the WSW of Grand
Cayman. ETA is moving toward the N, or 360 degrees, 7 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Precipitation: precipitation, in general, covers the area from
72W westward. Scattered to numerous strong is in clusters: in
the northernmost sections of Colombia in La Peninsula de la
Guajira; within 420 nm to the NW of the northern parts of
Colombia; from 12N to 20N between 80W and 85W in the coastal
waters of Central America; within 270 nm to the NNE of the
center of ETA; and in the easternmost parts of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to
strong is elsewhere in Central America from Costa Rica
northward. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.
ETA is forecast to strengthen, and to move northeastward on
Friday. ETA still is causing heavy rains and life-threatening
flooding in sections of Central America. This rainfall will lead
to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding, and landslides, in areas of higher terrain of Central
America. Significant, life-threatening flooding, flash floods
and river flooding, is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
Flash flooding and river flooding are expected for Jamaica and
southeast Mexico.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings about heavy rain and flooding in their countries.
Anybody who has interests in those countries should continue to
monitor the situation about T.D. ETA. Anybody who has interests
in Cuba, in the NW Bahamas, in the Florida Keys, and in the
southern part of Florida: please, monitor the progress of T.D.
ETA. It is possible that it may be necessary to issue tropical
storm watches on Friday, for some of those areas.

Tropical Depression Eta near 16.6N 87.8W 1004 mb at 10 PM EST
moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta
will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.5N 87.2W Fri
morning, move to 18.8N 85.4W Fri evening, 19.7N 83.2W Sat
morning, 20.8N 81.0W Sat evening, inland to 22.6N 79.8W Sun
morning, and 24.2N 80.4W Sun evening. Eta will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 25.0N 83.0W late Mon. The center
of Eta will emerge in the Caribbean Sea tonight, and approach
the Cayman Islands Sat and Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 30N/32N between 53W and 73W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are from 30N to 32N between 53W and the
coast of the U.S.A.

A shear line is along 28N56W 24N70W, to the southern part of
Andros Island in the Bahamas, beyond NW Cuba. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is
from 20N to 30N from 56W westward.

A north-to-south surface trough is along 32N49W 24N51W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated to locally strong is from 20N to 32N between 45W and
56W.

Tropical Depression Eta near 16.6N 87.8W 1004 mb at 10 PM EST
moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Eta
will strengthen to a tropical storm near 17.5N 87.2W Fri
morning, move to 18.8N 85.4W Fri evening, 19.7N 83.2W Sat
morning, 20.8N 81.0W Sat evening, inland to 22.6N 79.8W Sun
morning, and 24.2N 80.4W Sun evening. Eta will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 25.0N 83.0W late Mon. The center
of Eta will emerge in the Caribbean Sea tonight and approach the
Cayman Islands Sat and Sat night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible between Cuba and the Bahamas from Sat night through
Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic Ocean from
Saturday through Tuesday.

$$
mt
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