[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico...

A Central American Gyre is centered over northern Central America
and southern Mexico, with the broad cyclonic circulation around
the gyre encompassing southern Mexico and much of Central
America. Areas of thunderstorms continue to impact portions of
Central America from Nicaragua northwestward to Southern Mexico.
The low level circulation of Tropical Storm Amanda has dissipated
over Guatemala today, but the focused area of circulation within
the larger Central American Gyre has led to torrential rainfall
over portions of Guatemala and El Salvador over the past 12 to 24
hours.

Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture
into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the
next several days. This will maintain a dangerous situation for
these areas. Heavy rainfall has already impacted portions of
Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador, western Honduras, western
Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and
eastern Oaxaca. A continued period of active and wet weather,
with periods of heavy rainfall, is expected over these areas the
next several days. The continued heavy rainfall will exacerbate
the current situation, with the potential for life- threatening
flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive the
heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for
more details.

Tropical Storm Amanda dissipated over Guatemala today. The
remnants may rotate around the larger circulation of the Central
American Gyre and move out over water in the Bay of Campeche.
There is a medium possibility that the remnant circulation of
Amanda may develop into a tropical cyclone in the SW Gulf when it
emerges over water.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N15W to 05N29W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N29W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N- 010N between
the coast of Liberia west to 20W. Scattered showers are noted from
04N to 09N between 20W and 30W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted along the coast of Brazil from 02S- 04N
west of 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the
next few days.

A stationary front extends along the northern Gulf coast from
Panama City Florida to southern Louisiana to Houston Texas. A
Surface trough reaches northward from the far southwest Gulf to
off Brownsville Texas. Numerous thunderstorms are active over
the Bay of Campeche and in the Yucatan peninsula, associated to
the Central American Gyre. Fresh to strong winds are over the SW
Gulf to the west of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the SW Gulf,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

A weak stationary front along the northern Gulf will dissipate
tonight. However, a favorable middle to upper level pattern will
continue to favor the continuation of showers and tstms in this
portion of the basin through Fri. Heavier showers are expected in
the southern half of the basin associated with the Central
American Gyre, which is forecast to be nearly stationary the
entire week. Strong to near gale force winds and high seas are
expected in the Bay of Campeche through Wed associated with this
feature.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the
next few days.

The Central American Gyre is producing showers and thunderstorms
across much of Central America and waters offshore central
America. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate prevail elsewhere across the
Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the Gulf of
Honduras, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central
America and southern Mexico during the upcoming week supporting
heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean.
Winds and seas will also increase in the Gulf of Honduras and off
Yucatan through Fri as a result. The Bermuda High will rebuild to
north of the basin on Tue, which will lead to the development of
fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean Tue through
Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough reaches from near 30N68W through the southern
Bahamas toward the far eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered showers and
tstorms are active from 23N- 30N E of the trough to 63W. A
surface trough extends from 31N50W to 26N53W. Showers are noted
within 90 nm E of the trough. High pressure of 1021 mb is
centered near 26N59W. Gentle to moderate tradewinds, and seas of
5-6 ft, prevail S of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5
ft prevail over the open waters N of 20N. Seas are in the 1-2 ft
range W of the Bahamas.

A cold front will sink into the NW offshore waters and extend
from just east of Bermuda SW to the northern Bahamas by Mon
afternoon. The front will stall along 25N by Tue afternoon, and
dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will increase to fresh
to strong Mon and Tue. High pressure building in the wake of the
front will support moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N Wed
through Fri.

$$
AL/MTorres
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