[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with
the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the
eastern Pacific waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including
portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Areas of
thunderstorms are impacting portions of Central America from the
the Pacific coast of Guatemala and El Salvador northward to
Southern Mexico. The gyre will move slowly northward, gradually
encompassing much of Central America and southern Mexico within
the next 24-48 hours. Winds around the gyre will continue to
advect abundant moisture into portions of Central America and
southeastern Mexico for the next several days. This will create a
dangerous situation for these areas with an extended period of
active weather, and periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend
and into next week, especially over southern Guatemala, El
Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of
southern Mexico E of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring
the potential for life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for
locations that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas
of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your
local weather service for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is moving onshore into eastern
Nicaragua and Honduras, with the northern portion of the tropical
wave reaching the Gulf of Honduras. The tropical wave will merge
into the broad circulation around the Central American Gyre later
this morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau 12N16W
05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to the coast of Brazil
near 01N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is observed from 05N-08N between 21W- 25W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the coast of Brazil from 00N-03S east of 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the
next few days.

A cold front extends along the northern Gulf coast from Panama
City Florida to southern Louisiana to Houston Texas. A surface
trough reaches northward from the far southwest Gulf to off
Brownsville Texas. Numerous thunderstorms are active over the
Yucatan peninsula and the Bay of Campeche, on the periphery of the
Central American Gyre developing over the region to the south. The
surface trough and thunderstorm activity are enhanced by a well
developed upper low is centered over the lower Rio Grande Valley.
A recent scatterometer pass indicated NE to E winds around 20 to
25 kt over much of the southwest Gulf, east of the trough. Gentle
to light winds persist elsewhere across the Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft
seas.

For the forecast, the weak cold front moving into the northeast Gulf
will stall over the southeastern Gulf by early Tue and dissipate
through mid week. Winds and seas may increase over the southwest
Gulf early in the week as the Central American Gyre persists over
southeast Mexico and northern Central America.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the
next few days.

A tropical wave is moving across the far western Caribbean, and
will become absorbed into the circulation of the Central American
Gyre later today. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the
Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras and
off Yucatan through mid week as the Central American Gyre deepens.
Farther east, the Bermuda High rebuilds to north of the basin
maintaining fresh tradewinds off Colombia through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about the 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 31N59W.

A surface trough reaches from near 27N70W through the southern
Bahamas toward the far eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered
thunderstorms are active near the northern end of the surface
trough. A mid to upper level trough is moving off the Georgia and
Carolina coasts into the western Atlantic, supporting scattered
thunderstorms from 30N to 31N between 77W and 79W. Moderate SW
winds are active in this area as well, ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. A weak 1015 mb low is centered near
32N59W. Thunderstorm activity near this feature has completely
dissipated over the past six hours. Generally light winds and 3 to
5 ft seas persist over open waters west of 55W. The cold front
will move inot the area through late today, will reach from
Bermuda to South Florida on Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by Tue
afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will
increase to moderate or strong on Mon and Tue. High pressure
building north of the front will support fresh trade winds by mid
week south of 22N off the north coast of Hispaniola and near the
approaches to the Windward Passage.

Farther east, high pressure covers the Atlantic waters north of
20N. This is supporting moderate to fresh trades farther south
over the tropical Atlantic, with 5 to 7 ft seas.

$$
Christensen
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