[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302234
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 PM EDT Sat May 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with
the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the
eastern Pacific waters N of the equator and E of 100W, including
portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Areas of
thunderstorms are impacting portions of Central America from the W
part of Nicaragua northward to Southern Mexico. The gyre will
move slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of Central
America and southern Mexico within the next 24-48 hours. Winds
around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into
portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next
several days. This will create a dangerous situation for these
areas with an extended period of active weather, and periods of
heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, especially
over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western
Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of Veracruz and
eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that receive
the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
Please refer to products issued by your local weather service for
more details.

Tropical cyclogenesis is possible in association with Central
American Gyres, and a depression (TD Two-E) has developed within
the gyre circulation in the eastern north Pacific. The depression
will move inland over Guatemala Sunday and dissipate Sun night.
However, the larger threat will continue to be the Central
American Gyre, which will linger across Central America and
southern Mexico well after the TD dissipates.

...Broad low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean...

A 1015 mb low pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean
near 31N59W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within
330 nm E and 210 nm N quadrants of the center. Moderate to locally
fresh winds, and seas of 7 to 10 ft, are in the vicinity of the
low. Shower activity has decreased today in association with the
area of low pressure. Some development of this system is still
possible through tonight, and it could become a short- lived
subtropical depression while it moves northwestward over the
central Atlantic. After that time, further development is not
anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Please
read the Tropical Weather Outlook,
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W, from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted S of 15N and W of 80W. The tropical wave will
merge into the broad circulation around the Central American Gyre
on Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
06N20W to 06N26W to 04N34W. The ITCZ continues from 04N34W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen near the monsoon trough from 04N-10N between
the coast of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea to 28W. Scattered
moderate convection is also seen from 03N to 09N between 28W-38W.
Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are noted S of the
ITCZ E of Brazil to 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about heavy rainfall potential over southern Mexico during the
next few days.

A stationary front extends across the northern waters from
Louisiana to southern Texas. A surface trough extends from 26N93W
to 18N94W in the western Gulf. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are noted within 120 nm E of the trough axis. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail W of the trough axis. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the SW Gulf W
of the trough, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

A weak cold front will move into the NE Gulf early Mon, then
stall and dissipate in the E Gulf by early Tue. Winds and seas may
increase over the SW Gulf on Mon and Tue as a Central American
Gyre settles over SE Mexico and N Central America.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about heavy rainfall potential over Central America during the
next few days.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean, and will
become absorbed into the circulation of the Central Americn Gyre
Sunday. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean
waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean,
and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras Mon through
at least Thu night as Central American Gyre develops over N
Central America and S Mexico. As the Bermuda High rebuilds to the
north, E tradewinds north of Colombia should increase on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information
about the 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 31N59W.

A 1015 mb low pressure is center is near 31N59W with a trough
extending southward to 24N60W. A surface trough extends from
26N70W to near the windward passage. Scattered moderate
convection is seen mainly about 200 nm east of the trough.
Elsewhere east of the Lesser Antilles an area of scattered
showers is seen from 11N- 19N between 60W- 59W. Moderate to fresh
tradewinds prevail across the tropics S of 20N. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range.

A ridge just north of the area will weaken by Sun ahead of a cold
front moving south of 31N Sun night. The front will reach from
Bermuda to S Florida on Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by Tue
afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front will
increase to moderate or strong on Mon and Tue. Quiescent
conditions should prevail across the waters on Wed and Thu.

$$
AL
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