[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301754 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with
the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing
portions of southeast Mexico and Central America. Numerous
moderate and scattered strong convection is noted across much of
these waters, particularly N of 09N and E of 95W. Areas of
thunderstorms have moved into portions of Central America from
the NW part of Nicaragua northward to Southern Mexico. The gyre
will move slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of
Central America and southern Mexico over the next 24-48 hours.
Winds around the gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture
into portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the
next several days. This will create a dangerous situation for
these areas with an extended period of active weather, and
periods of heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next
week, especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern
Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E
of Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential
for life-threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations
that receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your
local weather service for more details.

...Broad low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean...

A 1015 mb low pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean
near 30N58W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
28N59W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted about 180
nm W and 140 nm E of the center. ASCAT data shows fresh east to
southeast winds about 420 nm east of the center and north to
northeast fresh to strong winds 200 nm in the northeast quadrant.
Some development of this system is possible, and a subtropical
depression may form tonight, as the low pressure center moves
generally northward. The low pressure could become a short-lived
subtropical depression while it moves northwestward over the
central Atlantic. After that time, further development is not
anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The
chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours is medium. Please read the Tropical Weather Outlook,
www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 81W, from 20N southward, moving west at
15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection has
increased from 17N along 81W westward to the coast of Honduras
and Nicaragua. showers are seen in the vicinity of the wave
axis. The tropical wave will move across the western Caribbean
through Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W,
to 03N33W. The ITCZ continues from 03N33W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N46W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen
near the monsoon trough from 04N-09N between the coast of
Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea to 28W. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen Along the ITCZ near the coast of Brazil
from 02S-01N between 39W-49W, and scattered moderate showers and
thunderstorms extending 450 nm north of the ITCZ near Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from interior sections of Mexico
into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is
passing through central Alabama and southern Mississippi, to SE
Louisiana.
A surface trough extends from 25N95W to 18N94W in the western
Gulf.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen about 100 nm from the
trough axis. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is noted
over the the central Gulf. ASCAT data indicates light to
moderate winds across the basin.

The weak front will move into the NE Gulf, then stall and
dissipate in the E Gulf by early Tue. Winds and seas may
increase over the SW Gulf on Mon through Wed as a broad low
pressure develops over SE Mexico and N Central America.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about Heavy rainfall potential over Central America, during the
next few days.

Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the western Caribbean Sea. A
cyclonic wind pattern remains over the eastern Caribbean.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen covering a broad
area from the Lesser Antilles to Jamaica and the Windward
Passage. The Pacific Monsoon trough extends from north of
Colombia westward across Panama and Costa Rica into the Pacific
Ocean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
north of Colombia, from 12N southward between 73W to 79W. In the
NW Caribbean, scattered moderate isolated strong convection are
observed in the Gulf of Honduras. ASCAT data indicate the
moderate trades across the central and eastern Caribbean and
moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras west of 84W.
Check out Special Features section above for more information
about the tropical wave.

A tropical wave south of W Cuba will move across W Caribbean
through Sun with little impact. Winds and seas will increase in
the Gulf of Honduras early next week as broad low pressure forms
over N Central America and S Mexico. Elsewhere winds and seas
will remain tranquil through at least Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 30N58W. The
chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48
hours is medium.

An upper level low is centered north of the basin near 28N59W in
the Atlantic Ocean. At the surface, a 1015 mb low pressure is
center is near 30N58W with a trough extending from 33N56W to
23N59W. A mid-level trough is noted in the southern Bahamas with
a surface trough well depicted by the ASCAT. Surface trough
extends from 24N69W to 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen mainly about 200 nm east of the trough. Elsewhere east of
the Lesser Antilles, an area of scattered showers is seen from
11N-19N Between 23W-59W. A 1029 mb high pressure extends into
the eastern Atlantic.

A ridge just north of the area will weaken by Sun ahead of a
cold front moving south of 31N Sun night. The front will reach
from Bermuda to S Florida on Mon afternoon, stall along 25N by
Tue afternoon, and dissipate by Wed. NE winds behind the front
will pick up to moderate or strong on Mon and Tue. Quiescent
conditions should prevail across the waters by Wed.

$$ MTorres
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