[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre has developed in the eastern North
Pacific Ocean. The gyre will gradually move northward, toward
Central America and southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend.
The gyre will continue to push abundant moisture into parts of
Central America through the weekend, and into the next week.
Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America,
especially from northern Costa Rica northward into southern
Mexico. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides for the locations that receive the greatest
amounts of rainfall, especially areas of mountainous terrain.
Please read the bulletins and forecasts from your local weather
service for more information.

...Broad low pressure in Atlantic Ocean...

A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda.  This disturbance is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms and gusty winds.  Additional development of
this system is possible, and the low has a medium chance of
developing into a subtropical depression tonight or on Saturday
as it moves generally northward. Development is not expected
after that time due to unfavorable environmental conditions.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 74W, from 19N southward, moving
westward at 15 knots. Isolated showers are seen in the
vicinity of the wave axis. The tropical wave will move
across the western Caribbean through Sun.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W,
to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 04N40W to near the
coast of Brazil near 05N52W. Scattered moderate to strong is
from 04N-09N between the coast near Liberia, Sierra Leone and
Guinea to 18W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen along
the ITCZ from 03N-09N between 23w-42W, and scattered moderate
showers and thunderstorms extending 450 nm north of the ITCZ near
Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough passes through central Texas, southward,
to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A stationary
front is along southern Louisiana, into Matamoros, Mexico. A
surface trough extends 25N90W to 18N94W in the Bay of Campeche.
There is a broad area between the stationary front and the trough
with moderate to strong convection from 27N to 19N and west of
90W. Another trough is seen in the NE Gulf of Mexico from 28N82W
to 24N85W. Latest ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong and brief
gale winds east of the trough to 90W. This is due to the
convection near the area.

A weak front will stall and start to dissipate through tonight
from west Florida to near Tampico Mexico. A reinforcing front
will move into the northeast Gulf Sun into Mon, then stall and
dissipate over the east central Gulf through late Tue. Winds and
seas may increase over the southwest Gulf Tue as low pressure
forms farther south.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the potential for heavy rainfall over Central America,
during the next few days.

Upper level low is centered north of the basin near 28N58W with
a trough extending southward into the eastern Caribbean. A broad
anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. This
is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 15N
between Puerto Rico to Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is
also seen in the Lesser Antilles south of Guadalupe to Porlamar.
The Pacific Monsoon trough extends from the southern Caribbean
west Across Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection
extends From the coast of Nicaragua south to the coast of
Panama. Check out Special Features section above for more
information about the tropical wave near 74W.

Winds and seas will increase in the Gulf of Honduras early next
week as broad low pressure forms over northern Central America
and southern Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the potential development of a broad low in the Atlantic
over the next couple of days.

An upper level low is centered north of the basin near 28N58W
in the Atlantic Ocean. At the surface, a 1017 mb low pressure
is center is near 26N54W with a trough extending from 29N50W to
19N61W. There is a medium chance this low will develop into a
subtropical depression tonight or on Saturday. Scattered
moderate convection is within 220 nm NE and E of the low, in the
NE quadrant. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 240 nm to the
north of the surface trough, and within 300 nm to the north of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, in the Atlantic Ocean.

Weak high pressure north of the area will shift east through Sun
ahead of a cold front moving south of 30N Sun night. The front
will reach from Bermuda to Palm Beach Florida on Mon, then stall
and dissipate along 25N through Tue night.

$$
MTorres/Christensen
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