[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281030 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Thu May 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central America Heavy Rainfall: A Central American Gyre will
develop in the eastern North Pacific Ocean by the end of the
week. The gyre will move northward, toward Central America and
southern Mexico, during the upcoming weekend. The gyre will push
abundant moisture into parts of Central America by the end of
the week, during the entire weekend, and into the next week.
Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America,
especially from northern Costa Rica northward, into southern
Mexico. This will bring the potential for life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides for the areas that receive the greatest
amounts of rainfall. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts
that come from your local weather service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 66W, from 20N southward, moving west at
15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate
and isolated strong is from 17N to 21N between 60W and 71W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N to 23N between 59W and
72W.

A tropical wave is along 91W/92W from 21N southward, in the
eastern Bay of Campeche, moving west at 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong covers the areas from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
in southern Mexico, to Guatemala, Belize, and Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W, to 08N15W, to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to
02N45W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within
100 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 14W and 22W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 03N to 10N
between 20W and 55W, and elsewhere from 10N southward from 15W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid- to upper level trough passes through the eastern half of
Texas into the western Gulf of Mexico. Earlier scatterometer
data depicted light to gentle winds in the Gulf of Mexico. The
sea heights generally were at 3 feet or less, based on recent
buoy observations. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 28N
southward. Scattered strong is in parts of south central Texas.

A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday night. The front will then stall and dissipate through
early Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information
about the Central America Gyre scenario that is expected for
parts of Central America during the upcoming weekend.

Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and a few rain showers
are to the west of a line that runs from NW Cuba to the coast of
Colombia near 11N75W, including inland areas of Central America.
Earlier precipitation has weakened, but lingering showers
persist. An upper level ridge is along 82W/83W, and upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 70W eastward.
The cyclonic wind flow is related to the southern part of an
Atlantic Ocean trough that is north of 20N between 47W and 74W.

The eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave will reach the western
Caribbean Sea on Friday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected in the southwest Caribbean Sea and the adjacent
parts of South and Central America during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an upper level trough,
covers the Atlantic Ocean north of 20N between 47W and 74W. A
surface trough is analyzed from 28N50W to 24N51W to 21N56W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 180 nm ESE
of the surface trough, from 20N to 25N between 47W and 54W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the rest of
the waters from 18N to 20N between 50W and 61W. Broken to
overcast multi-layered clouds and scattered rain showers cover
the remainder of the area from 18N northward between 44W and 60W.

Weak high pressure will build to the north of the area during
the next few days. A cold front will move southward, to the east
of Florida, on Monday.

$$
mt/dbm
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net