[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 271432
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022020
1100 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

The circulation of Bertha remained compact yet well-defined
through landfall, which occurred around 930 AM EDT near Mount
Pleasant, South Carolina. Buoy data around that time indicated
that maximum sustained winds had increased to around 45 kt.
Although the center has moved inland, a strong rain band with
onshore flow continues to slowly migrate northward along the South
Carolina coast. Therefore it is anticipated that
tropical-storm-force winds will remain possible in the warning area
over the next few hours. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression later today, then weaken to a remnant low tonight as the
center moves farther inland.

Model guidance is in good agreement on taking the weakening cyclone
north to north-northwestward through tonight, followed by a turn to
the north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed later on
Thursday. This official track is only slightly east of the previous
one and is near the multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Bertha may produce life-threatening flash flooding across
portions of eastern to central South Carolina into west central to
far southeast North Carolina and Southwest Virginia.  Ongoing river
flooding will be aggravated and recessions prolonged in the region.

2. Bertha is expected to continue to bring tropical storm winds to
portions of the South Carolina coast within the warning area over
next few hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 33.3N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 35.2N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/1200Z 38.8N  79.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven
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