[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 16N59W 08N60W, in NE Venezuela. The
tropical wave is moving W 10 to 15 knots. TPW imagery has been
showing enhanced moisture to the east of the wave.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 10N southward between
50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 22N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong in clusters is in
Central America from Nicaragua to Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 04N30W, 03N40W, to
02N43W. Precipitation: numerous strong is along the coast of
Sierra Leone. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 120 nm to the north of the ITCZ, and from 05N southward,
between 26W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from
03N to 08N between 10W and 26W. Numerous strong is from 02N to
03N from 01W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 10W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 90W westward. A cold front is passing through
southeastern Louisiana, to 25N95W in the western Gulf of Mexico,
to the coast of Mexico along 22N. The cold front continues
northwestward in Mexico to 24N100W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N to 30N between
90W and 92W.

An upper level trough passes through the Florida Big Bend, to SE
Florida, and the Straits of Florida.
A surface trough extends from 30N78W, to a Daytona Beach Florida
1011 mb low pressure center. The surface trough continues from
the 1011 mb low pressure center, into the Gulf of Mexico to
28N84W, and to 29N89W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 23N to 26N between Andros Island in
the Bahamas and 86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in the Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward
between 76W and 80W.

Broad surface low pressure in the isobaric pattern extends from
mainland Mexico, eastward, to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong covers much of the
southern half of Honduras, and much of the southern half of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
other rainshowers are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The current northern Florida-to-NE Gulf of Mexico surface trough
will move northward into Georgia on  Wednesday. A cold front
across the NW Gulf of Mexico will stall and weaken weaken into a
trough through Thursday. A weak pressure pattern will prevail
through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface low pressure in the isobaric pattern extends from
mainland Mexico, eastward, to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong covers much of the
southern half of Honduras, and much of the southern half of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
other rainshowers are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough passes through northern sections of Colombia,
westward, beyond 07N80W in southern Panama. Precipitation:
numerous strong is from 10N from 78W eastward, including in the
Gulf of Uraba.
Scattered moderate to strong is from 11N southward from 80W
westward, in the coastal waters of Panama and Costa Rica.

Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in
the south central Caribbean Sea through Thursday night. Fresh
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through
Thursday. A tropical wave will reach the Windward Islands on
Wednesday, and move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through the Florida Big Bend, to SE
Florida, and the Straits of Florida. A surface trough extends
from 30N78W, to a Daytona Beach Florida 1011 mb low pressure
center. The surface trough continues from the 1011 mb low
pressure center, into the Gulf of Mexico to 28N84W, and to
29N89W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 23N to 26N between Andros Island in the Bahamas
and 86W in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in the Atlantic Ocean from 27N northward between 76W
and 80W.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 22N to 29N between 52W and 62W. This precipitation is
occurring on the eastern side of an upper level NE-to-SW
oriented trough, that extends from 30N50W to the eastern part of
the Dominican Republic.

The current 1011 mb low pressure center that is near Daytona
Beach Florida will move north-northeast overnight. The wind
speeds and the sea heights to the east of northern Florida will
diminish on Wednesday, as the low pressure center moves more to
the north.

$$
mt
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