[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
610 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 57W southward of 18N moving
W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture with this
tropical wave. No significant convection is noted with this wave
with only scattered showers in the vicinity, mainly south of 11N.
This wave may enhance showers over the Windward Islands beginning
late today and eastern Caribbean on Wednesday.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 83W south of 22N, moving
west at 15-20 kt. TPW imagery shows that a plume of enhanced
moisture accompanies the tropical wave. No significant convection
is noted over water, however scattered moderate convection is
noted over southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra Leone and
Guinea near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to the
coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 10W and 15W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 15W
and 21W, and from 03N to 07N between 24W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from near Sarasota, Florida to weakening
1009 mb low pressure near 26N83W to 27.5N89W. An earlier
scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong winds north of the low
and trough, however more recent observations show winds 20 kt or
less. Earlier buoy data also showed seas to 8 ft, which have since
subsided to 7 ft or less. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms
are seen over the eastern Gulf. Another surface trough extends
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula from 24N87W to the Bay of
Campeche near 18N92W. A convective complex with thunderstorms is
noted over the Yucatan Peninsula from far eastern Mexico to across
Belize and northern Guatemala supported by a mid-to-upper level
trough. A cold front extends from near the Texas/Louisiana border
to along the northern and central Texas coast. Vigorous
thunderstorms accompany this front and will push offshore into the
northwest Gulf of Mexico this morning.

The weak low pressure along the trough in the eastern Gulf will
lift north today and tonight, moving inland on Wed. North of the
low, fresh east winds are expected to continue until it moves
inland. The cold front along the Texas coast will stall as it
approaches the central Gulf through the middle of the week. Haze
and smoke from fires over southern Mexico could reduce visibility
at times over the SW Gulf. A weak pressure pattern will prevail
for the end of the week into the weekend resulting in more
tranquil marine conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A convective complex with thunderstorms is noted over the Yucatan
Peninsula from far eastern Mexico to across Belize and northern
Guatemala supported by a mid-to-upper level trough. Mid-level
ridging and subsidence over the eastern and central Caribbean are
leading to fair weather. An earlier scatterometer pass showed
fresh trades across much of the basin, locally strong near the
coast of northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, as well as
through the A-B-C Islands.

Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central
Caribbean through Wed morning, then remain fresh through Sat.
Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse at night over the
Gulf of Honduras into Wed night. A tropical wave along 83W will
cross the western Caribbean through Wed, before exiting into
Central America. Another weak tropical wave will impact the
eastern Caribbean for the latter half of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from near 28.5N to developing 1009 mb low
pressure near Fort Piece, Florida and continuing W-SW into the
Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper-level diffluence is enhancing
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 24N to 29.5N
between 75W and 81W, including over portions of the northwest
Bahamas, along the coast of South Florida, and through the Straits
of Florida. An earlier scatterometer pass showed fresh SE winds
across the area west of 75W, with stronger winds in the
convection near the NW Bahamas. A weak surface trough that was
previously lingering along 66W from 21N to 27N has become ill-
defined, however isolated showers and thunderstorms are still
noted from 25N to 28N between 60W and 66W. Farther east, a
surface trough extends from 32N37W to 22N59W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm of the trough
axis. A 1022 mb high is near 28N38W. In the NE Atlantic, a
surface trough is from 31N26W to 23N20N. Isolated showers are
near the trough axis north of 26N.

The trough and low near and off the coast of eastern Florida will
lift N today and tonight, with strong east winds head of it.
Another trough may develop mainly E of 65W during the latter half
of the week.

$$
Lewitsky
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