[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 72W/73W from 20N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots, through Haiti. The base of an upper
level trough is reaching 16N82W. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and other possible precipitation are being pushed
northeastward, and into the same area toward which the tropical
wave is moving.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 07N14W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from
06N17W to 05N19W 05N22W 03N26W 03N32W, and to 02N34W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 75 nm on
either side of the ITCZ between 17W and 25W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 10N southward between 14W and 60W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 02N to the monsoon
trough/ITCZ from 14W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A part of the stationary front, from 24 hours ago, remains along
the northern boundary of the Florida Panhandle. The stationary
front extends from southern Georgia and southern Alabama, toward
central Mississippi.

An upper level trough extends from the NW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel, into the Caribbean Sea near
16N82W. Precipitation: numerous strong in the coastal plains and
coastal waters of Mexico from 20N to 24N between 96W and 100W.
Isolated moderate covers the Gulf of Mexico from 28N southward
from 88W eastward.

A NE Gulf of Mexico ridge will support moderate to fresh E or SE
winds into early next week, in much of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the NW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel, into the Caribbean Sea near
16N82W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible
rainshowers, cover the Caribbean Sea from Hispaniola and Cuba
southwestward, to Central America, from 70W westward.

Nicaragua is on the western side of the base of the Gulf of
Mexico-to-Caribbean Sea upper level trough. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong from 11N to 15N between
80W and 87W, covering the coastal waters of Nicaragua, and much
of the interior of the country. Similar precipitation covers the
western half of Honduras, and the southern part of Guatemala.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 22/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.01 in
Guadeloupe.

Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will persist in the
south central Caribbean Sea through Monday. A tropical wave
along 71W will move across the Caribbean Sea into Sunday. Fresh
to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N75W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to just to the north of the NW Bahamas, into the SE Gulf
of Mexico, to the northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120
nm to the east and southeast of the upper level trough.

A stationary front passes through 32N44W, to 31N49W. The front
becomes dissipating stationary, from 31N49W, to 28N60W, 25N71W,
and curving northwestward beyond 32N76W. Precipitation: broken
to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are within 400 nm to the south and southeast of
the stationary front/dissipating stationary front from 71W
eastward, and within 360 nm to the WSW of the dissipating
stationary elsewhere. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed
for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC, according to the PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC, are: 0.17 in Bermuda.

An upper level trough is along 24N37W 18N50W 08N55W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
10N to 16N between 40W and 53W.

The current stationary front will drift SE, and weaken through
Friday. Large NE swell will affect the waters NE of the Bahamas
through Friday night, and then subside on Saturday. Modest high
pressure will build across the northern waters on Friday and
Saturday. It is possible that a weak cold front may move off the
SE U.S.A. coast on Sunday.

$$
mt
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