[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu May 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure is forecast to form in the Straits of
Florida during  the next 24 hours. It is likely that this low
pressure center may become a tropical storm or a subtropical
storm, by late Friday or Saturday, when it is located near the
northwestern Bahamas. This weather system is expected to move
generally northeastward, in the western Atlantic Ocean, later in
the weekend and early in the next week. Expect heavy rainfall in
parts of the Florida Keys, southeastern Florida, and in the
Bahamas, through Saturday. Tropical storm-force wind gusts are
possible also in parts of the Florida Keys, southeastern
Florida, and the Bahamas, during the next day or two. Hazardous
marine conditions are expected along the Florida east coast; and
in the Bahamas where gale-force winds are forecast. Please read
weather bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office,
and the High Seas Forecasts, for more details. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
this system later today on Friday, if it is necessary. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 9 AM EDT Friday, or earlier, if it is necessary. The chance
of formation of a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is
high.

...GALE WARNING...

Expect frequent gusts to gale-force, and sea heights ranging
from 8 feet to 10 feet, in the Straits of Florida, for the next
24 hours or so. The current overall forecast consists of: NE to
E winds 20 to 30 knots, in the Gulf of Mexico and in the
Atlantic Ocean, from 24N to 28N between 69W and 83W. Sea heights
will range from 8 feet to 10 feet, with the comparatively
highest values expected in the Straits of Florida. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N14W, to 07N17W and to 07N20W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 05N28W, to 01N40W, and 01N50W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is:
from 07N southward between 24W and 52W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is from the monsoon trough southward from 20W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A shear line continues from 24N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, and into
the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 25N between the SE
Bahamas to 81W in the Straits of Florida. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and other isolated rainshowers cover the
areas that are from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 31N in the
Atlantic Ocean, between 63W in the Atlantic Ocean and 83W in the
Gulf of Mexico.

The GFS model for 250 mb, and water vapor satellite imagery,
show a north-to-south oriented trough that is moving through
Mississippi and Louisiana. Precipitation: Numerous strong within
90 nm to the north of the Gulf coast between 88W in Mississippi
and 93W in Louisiana.

The current shear line in the Straits of Florida will weaken and
dissipate overnight. A ridge extending into the NE Gulf of
Mexico will maintain fresh to strong E to SE winds E of 90W
overnight. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the
rest of the basin through Sunday. It is possible that a low
pressure center may develop near Louisiana on Sunday, and drag a
weak cold front across the northern Gulf of Mexico early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line continues from 24N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, and into
the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 25N between the SE
Bahamas to 81W in the Straits of Florida. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and other isolated rainshowers cover the
areas that are from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 31N in the
Atlantic Ocean, between 63W in the Atlantic Ocean and 83W in the
Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure to the north of the region will weaken and shift
eastward through Sunday. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue in the south central Caribbean Sea near Venezuela and
Colombia through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N48W, to
27N56W, to 26N63W. A stationary front continues from 26N63W to
24N73W. A shear line continues from 24N73W, across the southern
Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, and into the Gulf of
Mexico near 24N85W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 20N to 25N between the SE Bahamas to 81W in
the Straits of Florida. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and other isolated rainshowers cover the areas that are from 18N
in the Caribbean Sea to 31N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 63W
in the Atlantic Ocean and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough is along 26N55W 21N59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
from 20N to 27N between 51W and 64W.

An upper level trough is along 30N40W 25N45W 20N45W 13N52W. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is from 20N northward from 25W eastward. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery.

A trough will form off the southern coast of Florida overnight.
The trough will move northward on Friday, as a low pressure
center develops near the northern Bahamas. It is likely that the
system may  become a tropical depression or a subtropical
depression during the upcoming weekend, as it moves NE in the
western Atlantic Ocean. Frequent gusts to gale-force are
possible near and north of the Bahamas during the next two days.

$$
mt
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