[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141616 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1216 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020

Updated to add Special Features section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...Special Features...

Increasing cloudiness along with areas of numerous showers and
thunderstorms are over the Straits of Florida and western
Atlantic waters south of 27N and west of 70W, including the
vicinity of the Bahamas. In addition, a very tight pressure
gradient between strong high pressure ridging centered off the
eastern seaboard and a stationary front that extends from east-
northeast of the Bahamas west-southwestward across the central
Bahamas and to Straits of Florida is producing strong northeast
to east winds reaching to near gale force over these waters as
is presently being noted in both buoy and ship observations.
These winds are forecast to acquire frequent gusts to gale force
beginning this evening and into Fri morning. A gale warning for
frequent gusts is in effect for the waters south of 27N and west
of 74W.

Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
development for the aforementioned area of cloudiness
precipitation, and this system is likely to become a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm this weekend when it is located
near or north of the northwestern Bahamas. The system is
forecast to move generally northeastward over the western
Atlantic early next week. Regardless of development, the
disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds to portions of southeastern Florida and the central
and northwestern Bahamas over the next couple of days. It has a
medium chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression
during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from
06N18W to the Equator along 37W, to the Equator along 49W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate isolated strong is from 02N to
05N between 32W and 51w. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level westerly wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A
stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 28N61W,
and it continues to 24N70W, across the southern Bahamas, through
the Straits of Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is from 18N in the
Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W in the
Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate
is from 25N northward from 90W westward.

The current stationary front will weaken and then dissipate in
the Gulf of Mexico later today. A ridge extending into the NE
Gulf will maintain fresh to strong E to SE winds E of 90W
through tonight. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail in the
rest of basin through the weekend. Low pressure may develop near
Louisiana on Sun and drag a weak cold front across the northern
Gulf on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is north of the area in the Atlantic Ocean
across the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, and
into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate to strong is from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to 28N in
the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in
the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will strengthen north of the region through Sat.
Fresh to strong trades will prevail in the south-central
Caribbean during the upcoming weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on an Atlantic
area of cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms that has potential
for tropical or subtropical formation this weekend. This Special
Features area also contains details on a short-term forecast for
frequent gusts to gale force associated with the area of
cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms.

A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 32N52W,
to 24N70W, across the southern Bahamas, through the Straits of
Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W. A surface
trough is along 28N54W to 21N57W. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate from 21N northward between 50W and 70W, with the front.
Scattered moderate to strong is from 18N in the Caribbean Sea to
28N in the Atlantic Ocean, between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and
87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere,
within 240 nm to the east of the surface trough, and within 120
nm to the west of the surface trough.

A dissipating eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through
the coastal sections of the Western Sahara near 23N16W, to
24N28W. Precipitation: no significant convective precipitation
is apparent in satellite imagery.

The current stationary front will weaken across the Bahamas
later today. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic
Ocean through Fri, resulting in fresh to strong E winds and
building seas over the waters N of 22N. It is likely that an
area of low pressure will form near the Bahamas early on
Saturday. It is possible that the low pressure center may
develop into a subtropical depression during the upcoming
weekend, while moving NE in the western Atlantic Ocean.

$$
mt/dbm/Aguirre
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