[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W
to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to the coast of Brazil
near 01N50W. Scattered showers are noted about 250 nm southeast
of the monsoon trough near the coast of Sierra Leone and
Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ and
within 200 nm N of the ITCZ mainly west of 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front extends from near Naples, Florida
to 26N88W. A surface ridge is starting to build across the basin.
Fresh to strong winds prevail across the northern Gulf. Moderate
to fresh return flow is noted over the far NW waters, and gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Water vapor imagery
indicates the presence of drier air mass across the basin, with
limited shower activity.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the
week as an old cold front stalls across central Cuba and the NW
Caribbean. Southerly return flow will prevail across the western
part of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the southern Caribbean E of
76W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. To the
southwest, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along
the coast of Panama and Costa Rica with most of the strong
convection south in the eastern Pacific. A 1010 mb low pressure
is noted over northern Colombia and a surface trough extending
westward across Costa Rica. Otherwise, isolated showers are
embedded within the trade wind flow.

Surface trough will prevail N of the area through the middle of
the week resulting in a weak pressure gradient over the
Caribbean. This will support a small area of fresh to strong
trades across s central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 1500 UTC, a reinforcing cold front extends across the far
West Atlantic from 31N69W to the Florida Keys. To the east, a
stationary front remains over the area extending from 26N72W to
the NW Cuba. ASCAT indicate a surface trough in the southern
Bahamas from 26N70W to 19N74W. Scattered showers prevail in the
vicinity of trough with isolated activity along the stationary
and cold front. Fresh to strong winds prevail W of Andros Islands
along the Florida Straits. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near
37N40W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of
the waters N of 23N. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-9 ft seas
prevail S of 20N. Isolated showers are embedded within the trade
wind flow.

The reinforcing cold front will gradually merge with the
stationary front this evening then, the merged front will move
SE and reach from 28N65W to central Cuba by Wed, and remain
nearly stationary through Thu. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. Low pressure and active weather is expected
to form NE of the Bahamas Fri night through the upcoming weekend.

$$
MTorres
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