[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120508
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EDT Tue May 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W
to 07N21W to 04N28W. The ITCZ extends from 04N28W to the coast
of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 200 nm on either sides of the ITCZ mainly west of 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends across the northeast portion of the
basin from 28N83W to 26N88W. A surface ridge is building across
the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered north of the
front near 30N88W. Scatterometer data depicted moderate to fresh
NE-E flow across the basin, except in the SE Gulf where fresh to
strong NE winds were noted due to a tight pressure gradient with
low pressure SE of the area near the SW coast of Cuba.

The fresh to strong winds in the SE Gulf will persist through
early Wed. High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters
through the week. Southerly return flow will prevail across the
western part of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1013 mb surface low is centered over the NW Caribbean near
20N83W. A surface trough extends southwest from the low to
16N84W. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of the
low/trough mainly west of 76W. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted behind the low/trough, with stronger winds near and north
of the Yucatan Channel. An area of moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevail across the south central Caribbean south of 15N.
To the southwest, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
from the S of 12N and W of 80W to across western Panama, Costa
Rica, and SE Nicaragua.

The area of low pressure across the NW Caribbean will drift south
and weaken to a trough through Tue. Expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean during this time.
Elsewhere, surface troughing will prevail N of the area through
the middle of the week resulting in a weak pressure gradient
over the Caribbean. This will result in a small area of fresh to
strong trades across south central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary extends across the far west Atlantic from
31N77W to 29N81W. To the east, a 1015 mb surface low is centered
near 29N72W, with stationary front extending from 31N67W to the
low to 23N80W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are NW
of the stationary front, with moderate SE winds are noted ahead
of the front. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of these
features between 68W-77W. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near
38N43W. Mainly moderate to fresh trades and 6-9 ft seas prevail
S of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail
elsewhere N of 20N.

The low will shift NE along the front, moving N of the area
today. The fronts will merge by this time also. The merged front
will move SE and reach from 28N65W to central Cuba by Wed, and
remain nearly stationary through Thu. High pressure will build
in the wake of the front. A new low pressure may form NE of the
Bahamas this weekend.

$$

ERA
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