[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat May 09 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 07N18W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W,
to 02N30W, to the Equator along 41W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 60 nm of the coast of Africa from 03N
to 07N. Scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm on either
side of the line 03N7W 03N11W 04N15W 04N18W 05N19W, and from 03N
to 05N between 40W and 42W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from 08N southward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level SW wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, into the NW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico, to the Texas Gulf coast near 28N, into
Mexico near 27N102W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
extends from 25N northern Mexico to 29N in Texas between 96W in
the Gulf of Mexico and 100W in Mexico. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is from 28N in the Gulf of Mexico to 30N in
SE Louisiana between 90W and 93W.

The current northern Gulf of Mexico cold front will move to the
central Gulf waters on Saturday. The front will stall gradually
through Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to develop
along or near the western part of the cold front, in the SW Gulf
of Mexico, on Saturday. The front will move east-northeastward,
toward South Florida, on Sunday. The stalled front will
transition, and it will become a cold front again, and exit the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico early on Monday. Numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms will impact most of the southern and
eastern Gulf waters. from Saturday through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb, and water vapor imagery, show that an
upper level ridge extends from the coast of Venezuela along 65W,
into
the central Caribbean Sea, beyond NW Costa Rica. Broad upper
level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Caribbean Sea.

Broad surface low pressure is along a NW-to-SE line, from Mexico
into Honduras. Precipitation: Warming cloud top temperatures,
and
weakening but possibly remnant precipitation, cover the
Caribbean Sea from 80W westward.

High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea. Expect moderate to
fresh winds in most of the remainder of the basin through
Saturday. The aerial extent of the trade winds will increase
slightly, from Saturday into Sunday, then diminish through the
middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N52W to
27N60W to 25N65W. The front becomes stationary near 25N65W, and
the front continues to 23N70W and 22N76W. Precipitation: broken
to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong are within 240 nm to the
SE of the frontal boundary, from 24N northward. Isolated
moderate is within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the rest of
the frontal boundary.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface trough is along 31N18W 28N20W
22N30W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on
either side of the surface trough.

The current stationary front will linger for the next day. A
cold front is forecast to move off northern Florida on Saturday
morning. The cold front will move across the waters north of 29N
through Sunday. Weak low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will
track across south Florida, and into the Bahamas, from Sunday
through Monday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact
the waters in the western half of the area from Sunday into
early next week. A cold front will move across the northern and
central waters through Monday night, in the wake of the low
pressure center. The cold front will stall from near 29N65W to
central Cuba late on Tuesday.

$$
mt
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