[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
111 PM EDT Mon May 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 09N13W
and continues to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 01N40W
to near the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 06S between 29W and
53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather conditions remain across the Gulf under the
influence of a middle to upper level ridge. A 1018 mb high is
anchored over the NE Gulf near 29N85W providing variable light to
gentle winds in the eastern half of the basin, and supporting
moderate to fresh return flow W of 90W. Seas across the basin
ranges between 3 to 6 ft. Radar imagery shows the Gulf is void of
precipitation.

Surface high pressure will prevail across the Gulf through Tue. A
cold front will enter the northern gulf waters by Tue night,
extend from the Florida Big Bend to near 27N90W Wed evening and
exit the basin early on Thu. A second front will sink along the
northern Gulf by Fri evening. Thermal troughs moving W from the
Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to locally strong winds on
the Bay of Campeche each evening through Thu night. Otherwise,
smoke from fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced
visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air subsidence aloft continues to support stable conditions
across the Caribbean, except over Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica
where middle level diffluence and abundant shallow moisture
support scattered showers. Otherwise, surface ridging over the
western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over
the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the
remainder of the basin through Fri night. An exception is the NW
Caribbean, where gentle to moderate winds are expected. Smoke from
fires in Central America will reduce visibilities over the Gulf
of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, a plume of
African dust has now reached Leeward and Windward Island, moving
W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N61W. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N48W to 25N60W. A
stationary front continues to 23N70W. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the front. A 1020 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 25N40W. A well defined plume of African dust and dry
air is over the tropical Atlantic from 00N-20N between 10W-60W.

The cold portion of the Atlantic front will move to 40W tonight
while the stationary part of the front will dissipate. Otherwise,
the next cold front will enter the NW waters Wed night and move
SE. It will extend from 30N66W to central Cuba Thu night, and from
25N65W to the southern Bahamas by Fri night.

$$
Formosa
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