[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040430
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0430 UTC Mon May 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W and continues to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W
to near the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is about 280 nm southeast
of the monsoon trough along the coast of Liberia. Scattered moderate
convection is from 01N to 06N between 21W and 27 and from 00 to 03N
west of 39W to the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends along the northern Gulf from a 1018 mb
high pressure centered over the western Atlantic near 29N73W and
a second high centered in the eastern Gulf. Weak surface trough
is noted over the southwest Gulf. This pattern is supporting
light and variable winds over the northeast Gulf with seas 2 ft
or less, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
elsewhere. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
evident with the exception of trough over the Yucatan Peninsula
with scattered convection noted in the vicinity. Moderate levels
of smoke over the southwest Gulf may be limiting visibility in
that area to some extent.

For the forecast, surface ridging will remain over the central Gulf
through mid week. The tail end of a cold front will cross the NE
gulf Wed afternoon to pass E of the area by Thu. A second front will
sink along the northern Gulf by Fri evening. Thermal troughs moving
W from the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to locally strong
winds on the Bay of Campeche each evening through Thu night. Smoke
from forest fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced
visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered off the northern Bahamas is supporting
fresh to strong winds and seas 6 to 8 ft off the coast of
Colombia from the Guajira Peninsula to off Cartagena. Fresh to
strong trades are also likely across the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh
trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are observed elsewhere across the
south central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades and 2 to
4 ft seas elsewhere in the basin. Regional radar shows a few
low-topped passing showers over the northwest Caribbean, west of
the Cayman Islands. But no significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is noted elsewhere. Dense smoke from forest fires and
agricultural burning in Central America is reducing visibility over
the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula. This smoke is
dense at times, especially in the western Gulf of Honduras off
Guatemala. Little change in the pattern is expected through the week.

Surface ridging over the western Atlc will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds over the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh
winds over the remainder of the basin through Fri night, except for
the NW Caribbean, where gentle to moderate winds are expected. Smoke
from forest fires in Central America will reduce visibilities over
the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front reaches from 31N50W to 25N61W, then becomes stationary
to 23N69W. A mid to upper level trough continues to support the
northern portion of the front, north 26N and drive it eastward,
while the southern portion of the front is weakening. The mid to
upper level trough is also supporting clusters of thunderstorms near
the front, from 27N to 31N between 46W and 53W. A 1020 mb high
pressure is center west of the front near 28N75W, northeast of Grand
Bahama Island. 1024 mb high pressure is centered east of the front
near 26N42W. Fresh SW winds and 7 ft seas are noted just ahead of
the front north of 28N. Elsewhere light to moderate winds and 4 to 6
ft seas are noted over Atlantic waters west of 50W. Farther east,
fresh to strong NW winds and seas 8 to 10 ft in NW swell follow
dissipating cold front analyzed from Madeira to just west of the
Canary Islands to 20N27W.

For the forecast, a stationary front will dissipate on Mon.
The next cold front will enter the NW waters Wed night and move
SE to extend from 30N66W to central Cuba Thu evening and from
27N70W to eastern Cuba.

$$
MTorres
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