[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Sun May 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 08N13W
and continues to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 02N30W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 13W and 24W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 44W and
54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high over the W Atlantic near 30N76W is producing 10-15
kt SE return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Fair weather is over
the entire Gulf. Dense smoke is over the SW Gulf S of 24N and W of
90W. Latest middle level water vapor and low level precipitable
water imagery show very dry conditions across the basin.

Surface ridging will remain over the central Gulf through the
middle of next week. The tail end of a cold front will enter the
NE Gulf on Wed afternoon and move east of the area by Thu. Thermal
troughs moving W from the Yucatan Peninsula will support fresh to
locally strong winds on the Bay of Campeche each evening through
Wed night. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires in southern
Mexico may cause haze and reduced visibilities over the SW Gulf
for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds
are along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over the
SW Caribbean.

Surface ridging over the Atlc waters N of the region will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across the remainder
eastern half of the basin through Thu night. Gentle to moderate
winds are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural
fires in Central America may cause haze and reduced visibilities
over the Gulf of Honduras and near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N76W. A cold front
enters the W Atlantic near 31N55W and extends to 23N70W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the front. A 1023 mb high is over
the central Atlantic near 28N44W. A cold front enters the E
Atlantic near 31N18W and extends to 20N30W to 20N40W. Scattered
showers are W of the Canary Islands.

The W Atlantic cold front will stall from 25N50W to the southern
Bahamas before dissipating on Mon. Otherwise, a second cold front
will enter the NW waters Wed night and extend from 30N68W to the
southern Bahamas by Thu night.

$$
Formosa
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