[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030447
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0445 UTC Sun May 3 2020


Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0430 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 01N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to
01N35W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is about 200 nm of the ITCZ and 100 nm south of the
monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extend from a 1021 mb high pressure area centered
just offshore the Florida Panhandle near 29N86W. Ship and buoy
observations along with recent scatterometer data show light and
variable winds over the far northeast Gulf near the center of the
high pressure, fresh onshore flow along the south Texas coast,
and gentle E to SE winds elsewhere. Seas are 1 to 3 ft overall.
No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted. A surface
trough is present along the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula.
Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico is evident across
the southern Gulf.

Surface ridging will remain over the central Gulf through the
middle of next week. Thermal troughs moving W from the Yucatan
Peninsula will support fresh to locally strong winds on the Bay
of Campeche each evening through Wed night. Smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico may cause haze and reduced
visibilities over the SW Gulf for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer pass confirmed fresh trade winds from the ABC
Islands in the south central Caribbean to 79W. Fresh to strong
trades are noted off Colombia and possibly in the Gulf of Venezuela
as well. Reports from buoy 42058 in the central Caribbean also show
winds reaching 20 kt at times. The fresh trade winds are due to high
pressure centered north of the area over the southeastern US.
Moderate easterly winds are noted elsewhere. Significant wave
heights are 5 to 7 ft in the southern Caribbean, except reaching 8
ft off Colombia, and 3 to 5 elsewhere. The pattern remains fairly
dry, and only a few passing showers are noted on regional radars
from the Leeward Islands through Puerto Rico. Smoke has diminished
slightly over the Gulf of Honduras.

Surface ridging over the Atlc waters N of the region will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, and
moderate to fresh winds across the remainder eastern half of the
basin through Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected
elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires in Central America may
cause haze and reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras and
near the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 30N59W to 24N68W where it becomes
stationary through the central Bahamas to near 23N79W. A mid/upper
level trough just east of Bermuda is energizing the northern portion
of the front, but the southern portion is starting to weaken. The
mid/upper trough is also supporting showers and thunderstorms south
of the front, north of 23N to 31N and up to 80 nm southeast of the
boundary. A ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure centered over
29N76W. Scatterometer observations indicated fresh SE winds ahead of
the front and north of 29N, east of the ridge. Seas are likely near
8 ft in this area, but 5 to 7 ft is observed elsewhere outside of
the Bahamas west of 60W. Farther east, another cold front enters the
Forecast area from 31N21W to 20N39W to 21N49W, then becomes
stationary to 23N53W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are observed
following this front, and earlier altimeter satellite data showed
seas of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted farther
south, with seas 5 to 8 ft.

The cold front in the western Atlantic will transition to a
stationary front from 25N65W to 23N73W Sun. The front will then
dissipate by Mon. High pres will prevail across the northern waters
through Tue night, then shift E ahead of a cold front entering the
waters NW of the Bahamas Thu.

$$
MTorres
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