[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
126 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

Low pressure will strengthen along the Georgia coast this
afternoon, sending a cold front off the Florida coast by evening.
Ahead of the front, SW gales will develop tonight N of 28N, and
progress E from 76W as the front orients from S of Bermuda into
the SE Bahamas by Wed night. Some gales may linger ahead of the
front into early Thu as far E as 58W. Behind the cold front, NW
gales will develop N of 28N between 62W and 76W Wed into early
Thu. Another round of NW gales may surge into the area late Thu
night through Fri night N of 29N between 62W and 68W. Seas of up
to 18 ft are expected over the gales area starting late Tue and
and continuing into at least Fri. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or
go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 00N32W to Brazil near
01S46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ
from 6N-5S between 32W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 31/1500 UTC a cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from
SW Louisiana near 29N93W to S Texas near 27N97W. Isolated showers
are within 30 nm of the front. 20 kt northerly winds are W of the
front. Elsewhere, prefrontal isolated moderate convection is over
the NE Gulf N of 29N. The NE Gulf has 20-25 kt SW surface winds.
The southern Gulf has mostly fair weather.

The NW Gulf front will move SE to exit the Gulf by Wed evening.
Ahead of the front, strong SW winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are
expected this afternoon over the far NE Gulf and continue through
the evening. Behind the front, strong NW to N winds are expected
over the same area tonight and Wed morning. Winds and seas will
diminish across much of the basin late Wed, and remain relatively
tranquil through the end of the week as high pressure builds over
the NE Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds along the S coast
of Cuba. Scattered showers are along the coasts of Hispaniola and
Jamaica. More scattered showers are over E Honduras, E Nicaragua,
Costa Rica, and W Panama.

Low pressure moving E from the United States mainland will weaken
the ridge over the western Atlantic for the remainder of the
week, allowing winds and seas in the Caribbean to subside. A cold
front will pass through the Yucatan Channel Wed evening, then
stall along 20N Thu and dissipate by Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning N of the Bahamas.

A 1011 mb low is off the coast of South Carolina near 32N74W. A
1017 mb high is N of the Leeward Islands near 22N64W. Another 998
mb low is over the central Atlantic near 33N41W. A cold front
enters the E Atlantic near 31N32W to 21N40W to 17N50W to 16N60W. A
warm front is over the E Atlantic from 31N24W to the Canary
Islands near 28N16W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 27N
between 27W-32W.

The low off the coast of South Carolina will rapidly deepen and
head ENE tonight. An unusually strong cold front for this time of
year will push SE across the Bahamas Wed and Wed night to extend
from near 25N65W to near the Windward Passage Thu. The front will
eventually pass to the E of Puerto Rico by Sun. Ahead of the
front, SW gales will develop and seas will build tonight N of 28N
and E of 78W, then expand E through Wed. NW gales are also
forecast behind the front over the same area Wed and Wed night.

The E Atlantic cold front will continue to move E through Thu.

$$
Formosa
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