[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over
northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and
the Bahamas will continue supporting nightly gales pulsing off
the coast of Colombia through at Mon night. Seas may reach near
14 ft by each early morning. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or go
to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N09W to 03N13W.
The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 00N27W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-06N
between 06W-27W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen
from 07S-04N between 32W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid-level high pressure is slowly pushing eastward as an upper
level trough in the northern U.S. also pushes eastward. This is
bringing a slow moving cold front to the NW Gulf, stretching from
the coast of Mississippi near 30N89W to 28N95W. The front is
lifting north as a warm front from 28N95W to Deep South Texas near
26N97W. A trough is also located in the western Gulf and Bay of
Campeche from 26N92W to 19N95W. NWS radar shows showers off the
middle Texas coast north of the warm front. Ahead of the front,
the latest scatterometer and surface observations showed gentle to
moderate SE winds with moderate to fresh NE winds behind the
front. Significant wave heights are 3 to 5 ft, with 6 ft seas near
the middle Texas coast.

A high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic across
Florida and into the eastern Gulf will drift southward over the
next couple days. A slow-moving cold front extending from SE
Louisiana to just offshore of Brownsville, Texas will stall
tonight, then lift northward as a warm front across the NW Gulf on
Mon. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Tue and
move across the basin through Wed night. Fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds will develop near the Yucatan coast this evening as
a thermal trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Quick moving showers are seen moving across the Greater and Lesser
Antilles in addition to southern Central America. The Colombian
low is located just off the coast near 10N76W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts strong trade winds off the Colombia
coast and into the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trades
extend northward to the southern coast of Hispaniola. Fresh winds
are also noted in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades
are elsewhere. Significant wave heights are 3 to 8 ft, with 9 ft
north of Colombia.

Gale force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia tonight
and Mon night. High pressure centered over the SW N Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean
through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse each evening through
Tue over the Gulf of Honduras. Winds and seas will diminish
across the region by midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 29N66W. To the east, a
cold front enters the waters near 31N46W to 27N55W to 30N63W. The
front was lifting north as a warm front from 30N63W to 31N64W.
Moderate to fresh NW winds are behind this front with seas up to 9
ft. A dying cold front is south of the main cold front from
30N44W to 24N55W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along
and ahead of these boundaries from 24N-31N between 41W- 49W. A
1022 mb high pressure is centered in the eastern Atlantic near
28N26W. A cold front is pushing southward in this area from 31N21W
to 30N30W.

High pressure centered over the NE portion near 29N66W will drift
southward and weaken over the next few days. A cold front will
move just offshore of the SE U.S. coast early Mon, then stall near
or over the far NW portion through Tue. Strengthening low pressure
is expected to move off the Georgia or South Carolina coast Tue
night and accelerate E-NE through Thu while pulling a cold front
across the offshore waters. Strong to near gale force winds are
expected ahead of the front N of 27N Tue night and Wed, followed
by increasing northerly swell late Wed through Thu.

$$
AReinhart
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