[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over N
Colombia and high pressure building S from the N Atlantic will
lead to gale force NE winds starting at 28/0300 UTC between 11N
and 12N between 74W and 76W, just off the N coast of Colombia.
This gales will subside Sat morning but then redevelop Sat evening
into Sun morning. Additional pulses of gales are possible Sun and
Mon nights. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC,
or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of N Liberia near
07N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 00N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is
along the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 08W-15W. Isolated
moderate convection is N of the ITCZ from 01N-06N between 16W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure centered over the W Atlantic near 30N69W
is producing 10-20 kt SE surface flow over the Gulf of Mexico.
Weakest winds are over the NE Gulf, while strongest winds are over
the W Gulf W of 90W. Radar imagery shows the Gulf is void of
precipitation. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with
axis along 90W. Strong subsidence cover the Gulf.

High pressure will continue to ridge across the Gulf through Sun.
A cold front will just reach the NW Gulf Sat evening, then stall
near the Louisiana and Texas coasts by Sun night. Ahead of the
front, moderate to locally strong SE winds are expected. A
stronger cold front could enter the Gulf on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the above Special Features section for information on
gales off the coast of Colombia.

The tail end of an Atlantic cold front ends over E Hispaniola near
20N70W. Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola and adjacent
waters from from 16N-20N between 68W-72W. More scattered showers
are over the Leeward Islands. Radar imagery also shows scattered
showers over the Virgin Islands. In the upper levels, a ridge is
over the W Caribbean and Central America W of 80W. The remainder
of the Caribbean is under an upper level trough. Strong
subsidence covers the entire Caribbean.

High pressure over the W Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean. Gale force winds will
pulse along the coast of Colombia each night through Mon night.
Fresh to strong winds will also pulse each night over the Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb high pressure centered over the W Atlantic near 30N69W.
A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N57W to 26N60W to
23N67W to E Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection
is N of 24N between 54W-59W. A 1025 mb high is over the E Atlantic
near 32N37W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over
the W Atlantic with axis along 60W supporting the cold front.
Another small upper level trough is over the E Atlantic near the
Canary Islands.

The W Atlantic cold front that reaches E Hispaniola is stalling
and will dissipate tonight. High pressure over the W Atlantic in
the wake of the front will reside there through Sun. Another cold
front will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon.

$$ Formosa
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