[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
140 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The 27-hour forecast, starting at 27/0000 UTC, consists of
NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10
feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, along the coast of
Colombia. The gale-force winds will last from Friday night until
Saturday morning, and then start again on Saturday night.Please
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC, the
latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W near the border with Sierra Leone, to 04N15W, 02N20W,
02N28W, and to 03N32W. The ITCZ is not present to the north of the
Equator. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 07N southward from Guyana eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 27N84W. A surface ridge
extends from the 1016 mb high pressure center, into the NW Gulf of
Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 20N. Broad upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.

Fair skies, and some visibilities ranging from 3 miles to 4 miles,
are being reported at some of the offshore oil platforms that are
in the north central and northwestern sections of the Gulf of
Mexico.

High pressure will prevail in the NE Gulf of Mexico through
Saturday. A cold front will move into the western Gulf of Mexico
on Saturday evening. Expect a modest increase in winds and seas
behind the front. The front will stall and dissipate in the
northern Gulf on Sunday evening. Moderate to fresh return flow
will develop on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough covers the
Caribbean Sea from 76W eastward. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery.

Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in broken low level
clouds, mostly from 84W eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that
are listed for the period that ended at 27/0000 UTC, according to
the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES,
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

High pressure in the W Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea. Gale-
force winds are expected along coast of Colombia on Friday night,
and possibly on Saturday night, Sunday night, and on Monday night.
Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night in the Gulf
of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N60W to 30N63W, 27N70W, along the
edge of the NW Bahamas, to the coast of Florida near 28N81W. The
front becomes stationary, and it continues northwestward, beyond
SW Georgia. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 21N northward between 51W and 64W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. 24-hour rainfall
totals that are listed for the period that ended at 27/0000 UTC,
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.39 in Bermuda.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 30W eastward. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 33N19W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from 26N northward from 20W eastward.

The current cold front will reach to 23N on Friday, before
dissipating gradually into the weekend. N of 27N: northerly swell
associated with the cold front will impact the area into the
weekend. High pressure will build across the northern waters in
the wake of the front, late on Friday and prevail through Sunday.
A weak cold front will move into the northern waters on Monday.

$$
MT
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