[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....
...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Gale force winds and seas up to 10 ft will begin to pulse north of
Colombia by Fri evening, 28/0300 UTC. This is expected to end by
Sat morning, 1200 UTC and will pulse again Saturday evening and
Sunday evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or go to
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N23W to
02S31W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection noted within 200 nm of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ between 07W-31W. There is an area of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection north of the ITCZ from
02N-06N between 23W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level ridge is centered over the western Gulf and bringing
subsidence to the basin. A 1018 mb surface high pressure is
analyzed near 26N86W. The latest scatterometer data depicts light
winds in the eastern half of the Gulf with moderate to fresh
southeasterly winds in the western Gulf. Fresh easterly winds are
noted in the southeastern portion of the Bay of Campeche.
Significant wave heights range from 1 to 3 ft.

A weak frontal trough will sink S into the NE Gulf coastal waters
before dissipating tonight. High pressure will then build across
the NE Gulf Fri through Sat. A cold front will move into the
western Gulf Sat evening, with a modest increase in winds and seas
expected behind the front. The front will stall and dissipate
over the northern Gulf Sun evening. Moderate to fresh return flow
will develop on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging extends into the western half of the Caribbean
with a mid to upper-level trough stretching into the eastern
Caribbean. At the surface, a trough is analyzed in the central
Caribbean from 19N69W to 12N73W. Scattered showers are in the
vicinity of this trough, notably from eastern Hispaniola, the
Mona Passage, and Puerto Rico. Typical streamer showers are also
moving across the Lesser Antilles. The latest scatterometer data
depicts strong easterly winds north of Colombia, with gentle to
moderate trades elsewhere. Significant wave heights range from 3
to 6 ft.

High pressure across the W Atlc will maintain fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean through early Tue. Minimal
gale force winds are possible along coast of Colombia Fri night,
Sat night, and Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
each night in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is sinking southward across the western Atlantic
from 30N66W to 29N78W. The front stalls from 29N78W to the coast
of Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
seen near the cold front N of 30N between 64W-66W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh southerly winds ahead of the
front with moderate northwest winds behind the front. A trough is
over the Bahamas from 27N76W to 23N78W. In the central Atlantic, a
trough is analyzed from 31N43W to 24N38W. In the eastern
Atlantic, a 1014 mb low is located near 26N20W with a trough along
the low from 28N21W to 22N18W.

A cold front will enter the NW waters today. The front will move
SE across the waters north of 22N through Fri night before
dissipating across the central Bahamas. Associated northerly swell
will propagate across the northern waters tonight through Fri
night. High pressure will build across the northern waters in the
wake of the front late Fri and prevail through Sun. A weak cold
front will move into the northern waters Mon.

$$
AReinhart
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