[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
722 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale force winds are forecast to start 16/0300 UTC near the coast
of Colombia from 11N-12N between 74.5W-76W. Seas of 8-10 ft are
expected. Winds will be below gale force on 16/1200 UTC. Gale
force winds are again forecast to resume on 17/0300 UTC and end on
17/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 00N40W
to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection
is S of the monsoon trough from 03N-10N between 10W-16W. Isolated
moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 21W-
30W. Similar convection is near the coast of Brazil from 02S-05N
between 41W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 30N86W. 5-15 kt
easterly winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds near the high
and strongest winds along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Patchy fog persists along the Texas coast. In the upper levels a
ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. Scattered high clouds
are over the N Gulf N of 27N. Strong subsidence is over the
remainder of the Gulf.

A weak high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic
across the northern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE
winds over much of the Gulf through midweek. Patchy fog is
expected over portions of the NW Gulf through at least Tue. Expect
strengthening SE return flow by late this week as a cold front
approaches the Texas coast. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE
to E winds will develop each evening near the northern Yucatan
Peninsula, then weaken overnight as the associated trough moves
offshore.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the Leeward Islands from 20N60W to 17N61W
to 15N65W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the trough. 15 kt
northerly winds are NW of the trough. Scattered showers are over
central Hispaniola, and SE of Jamaica. More scattered showers are
over Guatemala, Honduras, N Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and W Panama.
In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NE
Caribbean. The remainder of the Caribbean has mostly zonal flow.
Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean except over the Windward
Islands where a band of broken high clouds are noted.

Strong NE to E winds will persist over the south-central
Caribbean this week. Near gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia are expected to pulse to minimal gale force each night.
Elsewhere, strong winds will pulse through the Windward Passage
and south of Hispaniola during the overnight and early morning
hours this week. Winds and seas will increase east of the Leeward
Islands Thu night through Fri night as strong high pressure builds
north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N66W to 30N69W to
beyond 31N72W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front.
A 1014 mb surface low is located near 22N61W, about 275 nm NNE of
the northernmost Leeward Islands. A surface trough extends from
30N58W to the low to beyond 20N60W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 19N-25N between 54W-61W. A 1029 mb high is centered over
the Azores near 39N26W. An upper level low centered near 22N59W
is also enhancing convection.

Low pressure centered near 22N61W will move SW through Mon,
bringing fresh winds and increased seas to the waters east of 70W.
The low will open up into a surface trough Mon night near the
Leeward Islands as associated conditions gradually diminish. A
weak cold front will move across the northern waters east of 75W
tonight through Mon night, followed by fresh winds and increased
seas. Strong high pressure will build north of the area through
the middle of this week. Expect fresh to strong winds and building
seas north of the Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands Thu
through Fri night.

In the far E Atlantic off the coast of Morocco, expect N to NE winds
to increase to near gale force on Monday, with these winds
continuing into some of Tuesday. Building seas are also expected
between southern Morocco and the easternmost of the Canary
Islands during that time.

$$
Formosa
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