[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112230
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 00N26W to the coast of
Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from the equator to 05N between 17W and 26W,
from the equator to 02N between 26W and 30W, and also from 01N to
03N between 33W and 36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern Gulf with
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow noted across the basin, along
with mainly seas of 2-4 ft, except 5 near the Yucatan Channel.
In the upper levels, a ridge is over Mexico and Texas producing
NW upper level flow over the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through
Fri, with return flow dominating across the basin. A cold front
will briefly drop into the northern Gulf late Fri before it stalls
and retreats northward into the weekend, with high pressure then
prevailing into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades are noted across the
basin, except fresh to strong in the S-central Caribbean. Seas are
mainly 4-7 ft, except 8-9 ft in the S-central Caribbean. Scattered
showers were noted over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica, as
well as offshore and over interior Nicaragua and Honduras. In the
upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the central
Caribbean with axis between 75W-77W. Strong subsidence is over the
entire Caribbean.

High pressure ridging N of the area will support fresh to strong
winds across the S-central Caribbean through the next several
days, possibly approaching gale force near the coast of Colombia
Sat night, Sun night, and Mon night. NE flow will develop across
the approach to the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola at fresh
to strong speeds Sat night, pulsing mainly at night into early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1031 mb high pressure area is over the central Atlantic near
35N50W. A weakening stationary front enters the central Atlantic
near 32N33W and extends SW through 25N40W to 22N48W. A shearline
continues WSW to just N of Puerto Rico near 19N66W. A ridge
extends from the high WSW to near northern Florida, with a weak
surface trough analyzed from 24N69W to 20N71W. Fresh to strong
winds were noted by scatterometer data from 22N-27N to the E of
the Bahamas, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are
mainly 7-11 ft E of the Bahamas, and 2-4 ft W of the Bahamas. E of
the offshore waters zones, fresh to strong winds were noted N of
the shear line, with moderate to locally fresh trades S of the
shear line. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front and
shear line. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over
the Canary Islands producing scattered showers.

The high pressure and ridging will weaken slightly and drift N to
along 30N by Fri, then strengthen modestly over the weekend.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the waters S of 27N
through tonight. The large seas in N-NE swell across the waters E
of the Bahamas are expected to gradually subside to 8 ft or less
through late Thu. A cold front will move into the NW waters from
Fri night into Sat before it weakens and dissipates through Sat
night. Another front may drop down into the NE waters by the end
of the weekend into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky
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