[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
05N16W. ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 00N26W to Brazil near 04S48W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N-06S between
18W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 kt surface ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico from the W
Atlantic, with axis over the Gulf along 29N/30N. Mostly fair
weather is noted over the Gulf. Radar imagery shows scattered
showers over S Florida and the SE Gulf, moving W. In the upper
levels, a ridge is over Mexico and Texas along 102W producing NW
upper level flow over the Gulf of Mexico. A thin band of high
clouds is N of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through
Fri, with return flow dominating the basin. A cold front will
briefly drop into the northern Gulf late Fri before it stalls and
retreats northward during the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are over
the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, E Hispaniola, S Guatemala,
Honduras, and Nicaragua. In the upper levels, a sharp upper level
trough is over the central Caribbean with axis along 76W. Strong
subsidence is over the entire Caribbean.

A weakening W Atlantic high pressure ridge will produce fresh to
strong winds across the south-central Caribbean through tonight
before diminishing Thu and Fri. Winds will strengthen once again
during the upcoming weekend as the ridge builds WSW into N
Florida. Large N swell over the Atlantic forecast zones E of the
Bahamas will subside over the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1032 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 35N50W. A
stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N35W and
extends SW to 25N40W to 22N48W. A shearline continues to 20N60W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. 20-25 kt winds
are noted N of the shearline. Of note in the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over the Canary Islands producing scattered
showers.

High pressure centered over the central Atlantic with ridge
extending to central Florida will weaken slightly and drift N to
along 30N by Fri, then strengthen modestly over the weekend. Fresh
to strong winds will prevail across the waters S of 27N through
tonight. High seas in large N to NE swell across the waters E of
the Bahamas are expected to gradually subside to 8 ft or less
through late Thu. A cold front will move into the NW waters from
Friday night into Saturday before it weakens and dissipates
through Saturday night.

$$
Formosa
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