[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102240
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
to the Atlantic near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W to 02N30W to the equator near 34W and reaching the coast of
Brazil near 49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 12W and 19W, from 02N
to 04N between 23W and 25W, and also from the equator to 02N
between 40W and 42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
the equator to 02N between 43W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated ridge of high pressure extends from across northern
Florida to across the northern Gulf to the upper Texas coast. A
weak trough was analyzed in the SW Gulf from 22N94W to 18N94W. No
significant convection is noted with this trough. Fresh to strong
easterly winds and seas of 8-10 ft were noted through the Straits
of Florida, with moderate to fresh return flow elsewhere over the
eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate over the central and western
Gulf. An atmospheric river of mid-to-upper level moisture
extends from the E Pacific Ocean across S Texas and NE Mexico to
across the western Gulf. This is enhancing scattered moderate
showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially from the southern
portions of Texas and Louisiana.

The fresh to strong winds will diminish tonight, with return flow
dominating across the basin through Fri as the ridge remains in
place. A cold front will drop into the northern Gulf of Mexico
briefly on Fri before it stalls and retreats northward into the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient is noted across the basin with strong
high pressure NE of the area, and 1006 mb low pressure analyzed
over northern Colombia. Strong trades prevail in the S-central
Caribbean along with seas of 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh trades
were noticed here elsewhere along with seas of 5-8 ft, except
fresh to strong NE winds across the approach to the Windward
Passage and S of Hispaniola. A weak perturbation is noted in the
western Caribbean supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms offshore of and inland across Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras.

Strong winds will prevail across the S-central Caribbean Sea
through the middle of the week. The wind speeds will diminish
slightly as a weaker pressure pattern prevails through Fri. The
wind speeds will start to strengthen again in the S-central
Caribbean Sea on Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1034 mb high centered ENE of Bermuda near 33N60W extends ridging
W-SW to SE Georgia and across northern Florida. A cold front is
analyzed ESE of the high extending from 1020 mb low pressure near
33N34W through 30N36W to 24N43W where it continues as dissipating
to 20N55W then continues as a shear line to NE of the Virgin
Islands. Isolated to scattered showers are noted in the vicinity
of these features. A surface trough is analyzed from 25N64W to the
N coast of Puerto Rico near 18N67W.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across a
wide area on either side of this trough, enhanced and supported by
a sharp middle-to-upper level trough axis extending from 35N60W
to just E of the Turks and Caicos. In the eastern Atlantic, an
upper-level low near 26N21W is producing showers near the Canary
Islands.

Strong winds and high seas in large N swell will prevail, before
the conditions start to improve toward the middle of the week.
High pressure will dominate the SW N Atlantic through Fri, before
retreating eastward. It is possible that a cold front may drop SE
into the NW waters, from Fri night into Sat, before it weakens
and dissipates through Sat night.

$$
Lewitsky
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