[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A gale is forecast to start along the coast of N Colombia on
05/0300 UTC from 11N-12.5N between 74W-75W. Seas are forecast to
be 10-12 ft. The gale is forecast to end on 05/1800 UTC. The Gale
is forecast to resume on 06/0300 UTC and end again on 06/1200 UTC.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the
NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N30W to Brazil near
03S40W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from 06N-05S between 10W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 04/2100 UTC, a 1006 mb low is centered near Houston Texas
at 29N95W. A cold front extends S from the low to 27N95W to near
Tampico Mexico at 21N97W. Scattered showers are along the Texas
coast. 20-25 kt northerly winds are W of the front. The remainder
of the Gulf has 15-20 kt southerly return flow and fair weather.
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 80W.
Upper level high clouds are over the N Gulf. Strong subsidence is
over the S Gulf.

The cold front will extend from SE Louisiana to the central Bay
of Campeche tonight, from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay
of Campeche Thu evening, then exit the basin on Fri. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected in association with
the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale warning has been issued for the coast of N Colombia. See
above.

A surface trough is over the E Caribbean Sea from 17N65W to
11N64W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the trough.
Scattered showers are also over the higher elevations of
Hispaniola. Weakest tradewinds of 5-10 kt are along the coast of
Costa Rica.

A weakening Atlantic ridge extending from central Atlantic SW to
central Bahamas will remain in place through Thu night before
shifting eastward. Strong to near gale force winds will continue
across the south-central Caribbean through Sun night, pulsing to
minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia at night through Thu
night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri,
then reach from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Sat evening,
then begin to stall from the Virgin Islands to central Caribbean
Mon. Strong winds and large seas will prevail area wide behind the
front Sat evening through Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 25N47W. A
cold front extends S from the low to 21N50W. A warm front extends
NE from the low to 28N44W. A cold front extends from 31N29W to
28N44W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 22N-32N
between 38W-47W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low
is centered over the central Atlantic near 27N46W enhancing
convection.

A weakening Atlantic ridge extending from central Atlantic SW to
central Bahamas will remain in place through Thu night before
shifting eastward. A cold front will move off northern Florida by
early Fri, then reach from 31N68W to western Cuba by Fri evening,
and from 25N65W to Hispaniola Sat evening, then begin to stall
from the Virgin Islands to central Caribbean Mon. Near gale force
winds are expected across the waters N of 29N ahead of the front
Fri and Fri night, with strong winds and building seas behind the
front Fri and Sat.

$$
Formosa
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