[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021141
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N11W to 00N22W. The ITCZ begins from 00N22W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S39W. An area of strong convection is noted
along the ITCZ from 04S-02N between 17W-29W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the monsoon trough from 01N-06N between 08W-
17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb
high pressure centered over the western Atlantic. A trough is
analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 22N89W to 19N93W. Scatterometer
data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh
southeasterly winds across the basin. Strong easterly winds are
north of the Yucatan. Seas are ranging between 5 to 6 ft in the
western Gulf and between 3 to 6 ft in the eastern Gulf. Lower
level water vapor also show high clouds streaming across Texas and
making it into the northern Gulf of Mexico. No significant
convection is noted in the area.

High pressure will remain across the Gulf through Wed before
retreating eastward in response to a cold front that will reach
eastern Texas. This front is expected to reach the Texas coast
late Tue night, then move across the NW Gulf Wed. It will move
southeast of the basin by early Fri. Fresh to strong winds are
expected on either side of the front. Strong high pressure in the
wake of this front will build eastward through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A small portion of a stationary front extends from the coast of
Hispaniola near 18N73W to 17N76W. Cloudiness and scattered
showers continue to stream across the northwestern Caribbean,
in addition to eastern Cuba eastward to Puerto Rico. Showers are
also still moving westward into the southern portions of Central
America. Scattered showers are also noted across the Lesser
Antilles. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations
depict strong to near gale force winds off the south- central
coast of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Strong to near gale force
easterly winds are noted north of Colombia, while gentle to
moderate easterly trades prevail across the remainder of the
basin. Seas range from 3 to 6 ft across the basin, and up to 9 ft
north of Colombia.

The stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh to strong north
to northeast winds across the northwestern Caribbean, including
lee of Cuba and Windward Passage, will diminish Tue. Fresh to
strong southeast winds will develop Tue over the far western
Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras, and
continue through early Thu as a Gulf of Mexico cold front
approaches the Yucatan Channel. This front is expected to reach
the far northwestern Caribbean by late Thu night and move across
those same waters Fri and Fri night. Strong to near gale force
winds will continue along and near the coast of Colombia through
Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front extends from 31N50W to 25N56W to 19N65W,
then stalls from that point to eastern Hispaniola near 19N69W. To
the west, a reinforcing cold front extends from 31N55W to 27N59W.
A small pre-frontal trough is noted along the USVI from 20N63W to
17N66W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
northwesterly winds behind the reinforcing front. Seas are up to
12 ft near these fronts. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near
30N27W.

The front will become stationary and dissipate Tue. High pressure
in the western Atlantic will shift to north tonight in response
to the next cold front that will move over the far northwest
forecast waters early Wed, then become stationary before it pushes
eastward again as a cold front later on Wed. The front is
expected to reach from near 31N79W to NE Florida by Thu night,
from near 31N76W to the NW Bahamas and to western Cuba early Fri
and from just west of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to east-
central Cuba by late Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will precede
and follow this front, with winds possibly reaching to near gale
force behind the front north of 30N. Seas will build over the
northern and central waters Fri and Fri night.

$$
AKR
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