[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011140
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected today across the southern
portions of central America, particularly eastern Costa Rica and
northeastern Panama, in association with strong northerly onshore
flow behind a slow moving front. Please monitor the latest
forecasts from your local or national meteorological service for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 05N16W to 01N20W. The ITCZ begins from
01N20W to 01S28W to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen on either side of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough from 06S- 03N and west of 14W. An area of scattered
moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough from 01S-05N
between 06W-12W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high
pressure centered near 28N83W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow spans across the Gulf of Mexico. The latest scatterometer
data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh
northeasterly winds over the eastern Gulf, mainly east of 85W.
Fresh to strong southeasterly winds prevail across the western
Gulf. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the western Gulf and 1 to 4 ft in the
eastern Gulf.

High pressure will remain across the Gulf through middle of the
upcoming week before retreating eastward in response to a cold
front that will reach eastern Texas. This front is expected to
reach the Texas coast late Tue night, then move across the NW Gulf
Wed. It will move across the remainder of the Gulf to southeast
of the area on Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either
side of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Hispaniola near 18N73W to
15N78W to the coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W. Cloudiness and
scattered showers are noted along and west of the front. A pre-
frontal trough is noted over Puerto Rico from 22N64W to 16N68W.
Scattered light showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles
westward into Puerto Rico. The latest scatterometer data and
surface observations depict near gale force winds off the south-
central coast of Cuba, with strong northeasterly winds behind the
cold front with moderate winds ahead of the boundary. Strong to
near gale force winds are also noted in the Windward Passage.
Strong to near gale force winds are north of Colombia with strong
winds in the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are in the
eastern basin. Seas are up to 10 ft behind the cold front in the
NW Caribbean, up to 9 ft north of Colombia, and 3 to 6 ft in the
eastern and central basin.

The stationary front will gradually dissipate through this
afternoon. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds across the
northwestern Caribbean will diminish Tue. Fresh to strong
southeast winds will develop Tue over the far western Caribbean,
including the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras, and continue
through early Thu as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel.
This front is expected to reach the far northwestern Caribbean by
Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds will continue along
and near the coast of Colombia through the period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary cold front extends from 31N58W to 25N64W to northern
Hispaniola near 20N71W. To the west, a reinforcing cold front extends
from 31N63W to 26N71W. The latest scatterometer data depicts
strong to near gale force northwesterly winds west of the
reinforcing front with seas up to 12 ft. Fresh to strong northerly
winds are noted west of the primary cold front and seas are up to
7 ft. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 31N25W. A pair of
surface troughs were analyzed from 30N36W to 22N39W, and from
19N34W to 13N36W. Scattered showers are noted along the second
trough.

The stationary will dissipate by early Tue. A cold front over the
northeastern forecast waters will move east of the area by early
this afternoon. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds behind
this front N of 27N will shift east of the forecast waters
tonight. High pressure across the area will shift to north of 31N
by late Mon night as a cold front moves across the southeastern
U.S. This front will move over the far northwest forecast waters
early Wed and become stationary before it pushes eastward again
as a cold front later on Wed. By Thu night, it will reach from
near 31N78W to NE Florida by Thu night. Strong to near gale force
southerly winds are expected ahead of this front, while fresh to
strong west to northwest winds are expected behind it.

$$
AKR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net