[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
602 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N30W to 03N33W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is primarily identified via
GFS-based 700 mb wave diagnostics. Scattered showers are noted
along the axis mainly south of 07N.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 18N48W to 04N55W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to be well-defined at the
surface, based on the most recent scatterometer data. Scattered
showers are noted near the wave's axis between 44W-55W. This wave
is forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles during the next 18-24
hours.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 66W from 03N-19W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the southern
portion of the wave, affecting Venezuela.

A low amplitude tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 83W and
south of 14N, moving west at 10 kt. The tropical wave is
primarily identified via GFS-based 700 mb wave diagnostics. This
system, combined with the eastward extent of the NE Pacific
monsoon trough, is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection over Panama and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 08N28W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N28W to 07N31W, then resumes west of a tropical
wave near 05N35W to 03N51W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted
south of the monsoon trough east of 23W, and along the ITCZ
mainly between 35W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the basin, with an embedded 1017 mb
high centered near 27N85W. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds
prevail over the western half of the Gulf, while light and
variable winds are near the high pressure center. Some Saharan Air
Layer/African dust has moved into the SW Gulf though this is less
extensive than the previous outbreak. No convection is presently
over the Gulf.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the
week. With this, the same weather pattern will prevail through
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean. Please,
refer to the Tropical Waves section for details.

Most of the basin is covered by a moderate Saharan Air Layer/
African Dust event, though visibilities are only slightly
inhibited. Aside from convection in the SW Caribbean in
connection with a tropical wave and the NE Pacific monsoon
trough, scattered showers are noted over Cuba and adjacent waters.

High pressure prevailing north of the area will support fresh to
strong trades across the south central Caribbean into the middle
of the week. Winds will briefly diminish by mid-week as the area
of high pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

The 1030 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
37N41W with a ridge extending to the northern Bahamas. Moderate
to fresh trades are noted along the southern periphery of the
ridge. Some of the Saharan Air Layer/African dust outbreak from
earlier days still remains north of 25N west of 70W, though this
should disperse tonight. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows
African dust dominating the eastern Atlantic, just behind the
tropical wave currently east of the Lesser Antilles.

High pressure will prevail across the basin through mid-week. The
area of high pressure will then weaken as a surface trough moves
into the west Atlantic waters.

$$
ERA
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