[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 AM EDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 30W/31W S of 15N, moving westward at
15 kt. The tropical wave is primarily identified via GFS-based
700 mb wave diagnostics. Isolated moderate convection is from
02N-09N between 28W-36W.

A tropical wave extends from 18N46W to 10N52W to 03N54W, moving
westward at 15 kt. The wave is well-defined at the surface based
on the most recent scatterometer passes. Isolated moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. Slight development
of this system is possible during the next day or so. Strong
upper-level winds are forecast to inhibit further development by
mid-week. This wave is forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles late
Tue night into wed morning.

A tropical wave has entered the Caribbean Seas and extends along
65W, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is
evident in association with the wave.

A low amplitude tropical wave is along 82W S of 14N, moving
westward at 10 kt. The tropical wave is primarily identified via
GFS-based 700 mb wave diagnostics. This system, combined with
the
eastward extent of the NE Pacific monsoon trough, is producing
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over Panama and
Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from inland in Mauritania near 18N16W
to 14N20W to 07N27W. The ITCZ continues from 07N27W to 07N30W.
The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N33W to the coast
of Brazil near 03N51W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 02N-09N
between 36W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with an embedded 1017 mb high
located over the NE Gulf near 27N85W. Moderate to locally fresh
SE-S winds prevail over the western half of the Gulf, while light
and variable winds are near the high pressure center. Some
Saharan Air Layer/African dust has moved into the SW Gulf though
this is less extensive than the previous outbreak. No convection
is presently over the Gulf.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the
week. This will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the
western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pair of tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for details.

Most of the basin is covered by a moderate Saharan Air Layer/
African Dust event, though visibilities are only slightly
inhibited. Aside from convection in the SW Caribbean in
connection with a tropical wave and the NE Pacific monsoon
trough, scattered showers are over E Cuba and Hispaniola.

High pressure prevailing north of the area will support fresh to
strong trades across the south central Caribbean into the middle
of the week. Winds will briefly diminish by mid-week as the area
of high pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the area.

The 1031 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
36N40W with a ridge extending to the northern Bahamas. Moderate
to fresh trades are noted along the southern periphery of the
ridge.

Some of the big Saharan Air Layer/African dust outbreak from
earlier days still remains north of 25N west of 70W, though this
should disperse tonight. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows
African dust dominating the eastern Atlantic, just behind the
tropical wave currently east of the Lesser Antilles.

Over the western Atlantic, high pressure will prevail through
mid-week. The area of high pressure will then weaken as a
surface trough moves into the NW waters.

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net