[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W south of 18N, moving west
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 150 nm of the wave axis from 05N-11N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W south of 18N, moving west
at 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 04N-09N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W south of 17N, moving
west at 20 to 25 knots. Isolated moderate to strong convection is
noted within 180 nm west and 90 nm east of the wave axis from
08N-11N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 74W south of 15N, moving
west at 20 to 25 knots. There is no significant convection
associated to this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N20W to 09.5N24W. It resumes from 09N27W to
06N36W, and resumes from 05.5N39W to 06.5N53W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 07N to 11N east of 22W to the
coast of Africa. Elsewhere, aside from convection associated to
the tropical waves scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 90 nm north and 60 nm south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level divergence is enhancing convection across the western
Gulf. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of
28N and west of 91W. GOES-16 satellite data shows Saharan dust
continues across the eastern Gulf, and the stable airmass which
the dust is embedded is helping to limit convection across this
area. A surface ridge extends across the eastern Gulf waters.
Moderate to fresh southerly return flow prevails over the western
Gulf. Light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the
eastern Gulf.

A ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters through Sun. Fresh to
locally strong southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf
through tonight due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is centered near 18N75W. This low is helping
enhance convection between Jamaica and the west coast of Haiti.
GOES-16 satellite imagery shows Saharan dust continues across the
Caribbean Sea. The densest areas of dust are west of 70W, where
the dust is helping to bring hazy conditions. The dry and stable
air mass that accompanies the dust it is helping to suppress
precipitation across much of the Caribbean Sea. The dust is less
dense east of 70W. Over these waters, there is enough moisture to
support isolated low topped tradewind showers. Strong to near
gale force winds prevail across the south central Caribbean. Fresh
to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Honduras, as well as the
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the
remainder of the Caribbean waters.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south central
Caribbean through Sun. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the
coast of Colombia each night through Sun night with seas building
to 11 or 12 ft during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds
are expected to continue across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the waters west of 65W. Fresh to
strong winds prevail north of Hispaniola, with moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere south of 22N. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds
prevail around the ridge. The Bermuda-Azores high pressure will
dominate these waters during the next several days. Fresh to
occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse across the waters to
the north of Hispaniola each night through Sunday night.

Farther east, a surface trough is in the north central Atlantic
Ocean from 31N57W to 20N60W. Isolated showers are in the vicinity
of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of 20N and
east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong tradewinds prevail south of
20N. A plume of Saharan dust is noted across the tropical Atlantic
generally from 10N to 20N east of 50W to the coast of Africa. The
stable airmass the dust is embedded in is limiting deep
convection across this area, though low topped tradewind showers
are noted.

$$
AL
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