[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
713 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 31W south of 13N,
moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N to 10N within 300 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 52W south of 17N,
moving westward at 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with
the wave at this time, but scattered showers are likely occurring
from 07N to 12N within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave axis is entering the eastern Caribbean near 61W
south of 12N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant oceanic
convection is associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 05N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05N34W to 03N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm S of the
monsoon trough between 18W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level shortwave trough over SE Texas is supporting some
showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf this evening. A more
organized area of moderate convection is noted near a surface
trough analyzed over the Bay of Campeche in the SW Gulf.
Otherwise, a western Atlantic high pressure ridge extends across
Florida and over the eastern Gulf. A plume of Saharan dust is
being drawn northward across the central Gulf between this ridge
and the previously mentioned shortwave trough. Moderate to fresh
return flow continues over the waters W of 88W, while light to
gentle winds prevail E of 88W under the surface ridge. A 16 UTC
altimeter pass indicates seas remain 4-6 ft across much of the
central Gulf.

A ridge will prevail over the Gulf waters through Sun. Fresh to
locally strong southerly winds are forecast over the western Gulf
through Thu night due to the pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressure over Mexico. An area of showers and
thunderstorms persist over the SW Gulf. Winds and seas could be
higher near thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 satellite imagery shows that dense Saharan dust prevails
over the central and western Caribbean this evening. The dry and
stable air mass that accompanies the dust is bringing hazy
conditions to the area and is suppressing convection over these
waters. The dust is a little less dense over the eastern
Caribbean, where some low-topped trade wind showers were noted
earlier today. Strong to near gale-force winds persist over the
south-central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds prevail
across the Caribbean waters S of 20N and W of 70W. Seas are
generally 8-12 ft within the strongest trades.

Fresh to strong trades will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean through Sun. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the
coast of Colombia each night through Sat night with seas building
to 11 or 12 ft during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds
are expected to continue across the Gulf of Honduras through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring in association
with a weak surface trough analyzed NE of the NW Bahamas. A
surface ridge extends across the SW N Atlantic waters and into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds prevail in the
vicinity of the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. Earlier scatterometer data showed a large area of
moderate to fresh trade winds south of the Bermuda-Azores high,
across much of the tropical eastern and central Atlantic waters.
Earlier altimeter passes indicate seas in this region range from
6-9 ft.

The Bermuda-Azores high will dominate the forecast region over
the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds
will pulse across the waters north of Hispaniola each night
through Sat night.

$$
B Reinhart
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