[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 230817
TCDAT4

Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042020
500 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

Deep convection has increased during the past several hours in the
diurnal convective maximum, although there isn't much organization
to the activity.  The depression is situated beneath an
upper-level low, and the system has a large radius-of-maximum
winds, so it is still subtropical.  The initial intensity is 30 kt,
based on persistence from the earlier scatterometer data.  While it
is possible the depression could become a storm later today,
rapidly cooling SSTs should cause the system to weaken on
Wednesday, and open up into a trough on or before Thursday.

The depression is moving northeastward at about 11 kt. There
is good agreement in the track guidance that the system will
continue moving in the same general direction with some
acceleration during the next couple of days, embedded within the
mid-latitude southwesterlies. The new track forecast has been
nudged slightly to the north of the previous one, close to the NOAA
corrected-consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 39.3N  63.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 40.0N  61.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 41.4N  59.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 43.3N  56.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  25/0600Z 45.3N  53.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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