[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Depression Four is centered near 38.7N 64.6W at
23/0300 UTC or 290 nm ESE of Nantucket Massachusetts moving ENE
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north and east of the
center.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W south of 18N,
moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
06N-11N within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73/74W south of 17N,
racing W at 30 kt. A stable air mass associated with a dense
plume of Saharan dust is inhibiting any convection with this
wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W south of 22N,
moving W at 20 kt. The wave is not producing any significant
convection over water.

A tropical wave is along 94/95W from 19N southward, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche are being
enhanced by upper-level diffluence. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is over portions of southern Mexico from
14.5N-18N between 91W-96W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 10N26W. The ITCZ extends from 10N26W to 08N36W, then resumes
from 07N40W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 180 nm N and within 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 45W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico near 28N95W
is enhancing upper-level diffluence over the north-central Gulf
in a moist environment. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is seen from 27N-29.5N between 86.5W-92W. Locally fresh to strong
winds with higher gusts are likely with the stronger storms
during the next few hours. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are elsewhere north of a line from 26N97W to 27N86W to 29N83W.
Scattered showers are also over the SW Gulf of Mexico, south of
24N between 88W-98W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh E to SE
winds over much of the SW Gulf. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge
extends into the eastern Gulf, where winds are light and
variable.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast
over the western Gulf through Thu night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GOES-16 satellite imagery shows dense Saharan dust covers most of
the Caribbean. This dry, stable air mass is inhibiting convection
across the region. The exception is the far SW Caribbean, where
the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate
to strong convection south of 11N and west of 80W, including
over portions of Panama. At the surface, the pressure gradient
associated with strong Bermuda high pressure is producing fresh
trades across the waters S of 18N. A recent ASCAT pass shows
strong winds within that area from 11N-15.5N between 70W-77W,
with near gale-force near the coast of NE Colombia and NW
Venezuela.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central and southwest basin through the
middle of the week as high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of
Colombia each night through Sat night with seas building to 12
ft and higher during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See section above for information on Tropical Depression Four.

A broad surface ridge covers the western Atlantic, with gentle
wind speeds north of 22N west of 60W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is offshore northern Florida from 27N-32N
between 79W-81W due to a noctural land breeze being enhanced by
upper-level diffluence. Farther east, a surface trough extends
from 32N49W to 23N54W to 21N59W. Isolated to scattered showers
are near the trough axis. Two surface highs of 1025 mb are
centered near 33N41W and 33N27W. In the tropics, fresh trades
are found from 08N-20N, west of 35W.

High pressure extends from the central Atlantic to Florida and
will prevail across the offshore waters through Saturday. Fresh
to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse across the
waters north of Hispaniola each night through Sat night.

$$
Hagen
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