[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W south of 18N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of the
wave axis from 06N-10N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W south of 17N, moving W
at 20-25 kt. A stable air mass attributed to the Saharan Air
Layer is preventing any convection in the Caribbean, with most
of the convective activity occurring in northeast Venezuela.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W south of 20N moving W
at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW
Caribbean near the trough axis from 09N-13N between 79W-84W.
Isolated thunderstorms are off the Cayman Islands in the NW
Caribbean near 19N82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the Senegal/Guinea-Bissau
coast near 12N16W to 09N22W. The ITCZ continues from 09N22W
to 08N32W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 08N34W to
the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Aside from convection
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen within 200 nm north and
150 nm south of the ITCZ between 26W- 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level trough extends across the middle Mississippi
Valley into the NW Gulf. This is giving way to scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection across the central
Gulf from 27N-30N between 85W-94W. The strongest convection
is noted off the SE Louisiana coast. A squall line extends
across central Louisiana to southeast Texas approaching the
Gulf coast. To the east, a 1020 mb surface high is centered
over the NE Gulf near 29N83W. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds prevail over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the SE Gulf, and light to gentle winds prevail in
the vicinity of the high pressure center. Seas range 1-3 ft in
 the eastern Gulf, and 4-6 ft in the western Gulf.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters through the
forecast period. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast
over the western Gulf tonight through Thu night as the pressure
gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressure over
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dense Saharan dust covers the eastern Caribbean east of
75W. No significant precipitation is noted in this area. Strong
to ear gale force winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the remainder of the
Caribbean. Seas range from 3-6 ft across most of the basin with
up to 13 ft north of Colombia with the near-gale force winds.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central and southwest basin through the
middle of the week as high pressure builds over the western
Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of
Colombia each night through Fri night with seas building to near
12 ft during the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture and weak upper-level diffluence is causing
isolated showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Bahamas
and near southeast Florida. A surface trough extends along
a 1022 mb low near 29N51W from 33N49W to 23N59W. Showers are
within 150 nm E of the trough. A surface trough extends from
30N38W to 23N38W with isolated showers along it. Fresh trades
prevail across the tropical waters S of 20N. Light to gentle
winds prevail N of 20N. Seas range 3 to 5 ft across most of the
basin N of 20N.

High pressure extends from the central Atlantic to Florida and
will prevail across the offshore waters through the forecast
period. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse
across the waters north of Hispaniola each night through Fri
night.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net