[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
625 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W south of 18N, moving W at
15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm of the wave
axis from 06N-10N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W south of 18N, moving W
at 20 to 25 kt. Isolated showers are over water south of 12N
within 180 nm of the wave axis. A stable air mass attributed to
the Saharan Air Layer is preventing any convection N of 12N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W south of 20N moving W
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm west of the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12.5N17W to 09N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N22W to 07N29W, then resumes from 07N33W to
to 04N51W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
within 210 nm north and 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-
52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb surface high is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N83W
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the western Gulf. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the SE Gulf, and light to gentle winds
prevail in the vicinity of the high pressure center. Diffluence
aloft is supporting scattered showers and tstms over the NW basin,
mainly north of 24N and west of 90W.

Surface ridging will prevail over the Gulf waters this week.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over the western
Gulf through Thu night as the pressure gradient tightens between
the ridge and lower pressure over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong upper-level divergence is supporting numerous moderate
scattered strong convection over the western Caribbean from
13N-18N between 83W-87W, including much of Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras. Dense Saharan dust covers the eastern Caribbean east of
75W. No significant precipitation is noted in this area. Strong to
near gale force winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the remainder of the
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand to the north-central and southwest basin through the middle
of the week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.
Winds will pulse to near gale force off the coast of Colombia each
night through Fri night with seas building to near 12 ft during
the strongest winds. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the
Gulf of Honduras through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture and weak upper-level diffluence is causing
isolated showers and tstorms over portions of Cuba, the Bahamas
and near the east coast of Florida. A surface trough extends from
a 1023 mb low near 31N50W to 24N57W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 150 nm E of the trough. A surface
trough extends from 25N36W to 31N36W with isolated showers along
it. Fresh trades prevail across the tropical waters S of 20N.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail N of 20N.

High pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic this
week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse
across the waters north of Hispaniola each night through Fri
night.

$$
AL
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