[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Meteo-France forecasts minimal gale-force winds over the Agadir
area tthrough this evening, then weakening to near-gale force
over Agadir and Canarias through the next 24 hours. Please refer
to the Meteo-France forecast located at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grand large/ metarea2, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W and S of 15N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
210 nm of the wave axis S of 09N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W S of 20N, moving westward
at 10-15 kt. Abundant cloudiness prevails in the wave's
environment, making it easy to find and follow. Scattered
showers are noted within 150 nm of the wave axis from 07N to 15N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W and S of 19N, moving
westward at 15 kt. At this time, no significant convection
prevails within this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 78W S of 21N, moving westward
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern
portion of the wave mainly N of 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 09N27W. The ITCZ
begins near  05N34W to 04N51W. Scattered showers prevail from
05N-09N and east of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a
1018 mb high centered near 29N87W. A surface trough extends
across south Florida and the southeast Gulf along 24N and east
of 83W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity
of the trough mainly south of 26N and east of 85W.

The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are
expected through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are
forecast over the western Gulf Mon night through Tue night as
the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower
pressure over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

High pressure prevails north of the area, over the west Atlantic
waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting
strong to near gale force winds over the south central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western
Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds are noted over the
remainder of the Caribbean waters. To the southwest, the monsoon
trough extends along 11N between 75W-83W enhancing convection in
the area. At this time, scattered moderate convection is noted
along and south of the boundary between 76W-82W.

Fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean will
expand in coverage this weekend as high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic. Winds will pulse to near gale force near the
coast of Colombia each night through Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin, and the Gale Warning over the far east
Atlantic.

Divergence ahead of an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico
is supporting scattered moderate convection over the
waters west 69W. To the east, a surface trough extends from
31N48W to 26N51W. Scattered moderate convection prevails with
this trough north of 23N between 40W-56W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by high
pressure centers located north of the area.

A large area of Saharan dust covers the tropical Atlantic E of
50W to Africa with dry and hazy conditions. Fresh to strong
tradewinds prevail S of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
over the waters N of 20N.

The surface ridge will prevail across the region through early
next week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will
pulse north of Hispaniola at night.

$$
ERA
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