[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
734 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gale Force Winds Possible in Agadir...

Meteo France outlook period indicates near gale to gale force
north to northeast winds are possible for forecast area Agadir
off the coast of Morocco during the next 24 hours. For more
information: http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 24W from 14N
southward, moving west 10-15 knots. The weak wave is not well-
defined in either the surface or 700 mb winds and is embedded in a
very large zone of Saharan air. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted with the wave from 03.5N-07N between
21W-27W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is near 51W from 18N
southward, moving westward around 15 knots. The wave is observed
as some turning in the surface winds from a morning scatterometer
pass as well as a maximum in the total precipitable water just
east of the axis. Saharan air dominates the central tropical
Atlantic behind this wave from 45W to the wave along 24W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-11W between 46W-
53W.

An Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 73W from 21N
southward, moving westward around 15 knots. The wave is not
detectable at the surface, but can be analyzed from both 700 mb
winds as well as a maximum of total precipitable water east of
the axis. No significant deep convection is occurring currently in
association with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 08N27W. The ITCZ continues from 08N27W to 04N50W. Aside from
the convection associated with the two Atlantic tropical
waves, only a modest area of convection is noted from the African
coast to 17W within 150 nm S of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 24N85W
to the S Florida peninsula near 26N82W. A middle to upper level
trough extends from the Ohio Valley to the SW Gulf of Mexico, and
is promoting unstable conditions across the SE Gulf and Straits of
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection is
seen SE of a line from Tampa Bay to the northern Yucatan Peninsula
across the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel.

A ridge will build modestly southward across the NE Gulf tonight
and then dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas are expected
through Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are forecast over
the western Gulf on Mon as the pressure gradient tightens some
between the ridge a lower pressures over Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See above for discussion of a weak tropical wave near 73W.
Elsewhere across the Caribbean, the E trades are generally
moderate to fresh, with some E to NE strong winds observed by
morning scatterometer data just north of Colombia this morning.
Scattered moderate convection is occurred south of 11N in the SW
Caribbean associated with the NE Pacific's monsoon trough.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring
in the NW Caribbean from the NE coast of Belize through the
Yucatan Channel.

The tropical wave along 73W will move into the western Caribbean
tonight. A tropical wave near 51W will reach the Lesser Antilles
by Fri night. Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-
central Caribbean through Fri, then expand in coverage this
weekend as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Strong
to near gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia
Sun night through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See above for discussion of two Atlantic tropical waves. Elsewhere
the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb Bermuda/Azores
High centered north of our area near 35N36W, with a ridge
extending west-southwestward to 35N80W. Trades south of the ridge
are generally gentle to fresh. Two weak surface troughs are noted
at 29N68W to 31N66W and 26N50W to 30N44W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen within 180 nm either side of both
troughs.

A large plume of dense Saharan dust remains visible from roughly
10N-22N east of 42W. Visibility is inhibited over the area, with
Sal in the Cabo Verde Islands reporting about 3 nm visibility
earlier this afternoon.

The Bermuda/Azores ridge will continue to build across the region
the remainder of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola at night.

$$
Stripling
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net