[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
724 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W from 12N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 150 nm
of the wave axis S of 08.5N. A thick plume of Saharan dust is
seen from 10N-28N extending well ahead of this wave to 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 15N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. The wave is embedded in a
large area of Saharan air. Saharan dust is seen from 10N to 20N
between 40W and 50W. This dry environment is limiting convection
near the wave. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of
the ITCZ between 41W and 47W. This wave is forecast to reach the
waters from 55W to the Lesser Antilles on Fri, affecting the
islands mainly south of Guadeloupe late on Fri or Fri night.

A tropical wave with axis along 62W S of 19N is currently
producing showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands and
NE coastal sections of Venezuela, and could produce gusty winds
and heavy rainfall over these locations through tonight. Grenada
has reported gusty winds of 30-40 kt with heavy showers earlier
today. This tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean
tonight and Thu, reaching the central Caribbean late on Thu or Thu
night. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to locally
strong E-SE winds on the east side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 08N13W to 06N24W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N24W to 07N38W. The ITCZ resumes W of a
tropical wave at 06N43W and continues to the coast of N Brazil
near 04N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical
wave section, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 07N
to 11N between 50W-57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near
28N94W. A middle to upper level trough extending from the NE Gulf
to the SW Bay of Campeche is producing mainly dry and stable
conditions across the Gulf. Except for scattered moderate
convection over the Straits of Florida and S Florida, from Naples,
Florida the the Yucatan Peninsula.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico during the next several
days. Gentle to moderate easterly winds, and 2 to 4 ft seas, are
expected through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. See the
Tropical Waves above section for details.

A 1009 mb low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 10N76W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the W Caribbean S of 17N
and W of 80W, trailing a tropical wave over SE Mexico and the
adjacent eastern Pacific Ocean. Skies are generally fair across
the rest of the basin, except where strong afternoon convection
across eastern Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola is shifting into
portions of their adjacent coastal waters.

Fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-central
Caribbean through Fri, then expand in coverage this weekend as
high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic southward
through 31N72W to the central Bahamas, then continues as a frontal
trough from 24N70W the near the N coast of Cuba near 22N77W.
Isolated moderate convection is within 300 nm E of the system.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
27N northward and 33W eastward. Rain showers are possible in the
area of cyclonic wind flow.

The W Atlantic surface front will drift eastward N of 27N through
Thu and weaken. Atlantic high pressure will build across the
region by the end of the week. Fresh to occasionally strong
easterly winds will pulse north of Hispaniola at night.

$$
Stripling
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